Name: ¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?
Start: 2026-01-07T02:41:31.728068Z
End: 2026-01-31T21:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

>$7,040

>$6,900

>$6,840

>$6,760

>$6,960

>$6,600

S&P 500 mensual O/U

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

¿Cierre del S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). 

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

¿Será el cambio porcentual en el S&P 500 en el primer trimestre de 2026 inferior al 0%?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms.

Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

¿El índice S&P 500 ganará al menos un 2% en algún día del primer trimestre?

If the Nancy Pelosi Index performs better than the S&P 500 Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “Pelosi”. If the S&P 500 Index performs better than the Nancy Pelosi Index in January 2026, this market will resolve to “S&P”. 

The performance of each index will be the 1-month trailing percentage return of the index for the final trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for the Nancy Pelosi Index (“Pelosi”) is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559433043512836096

Information from the "Performance" table for the Nancy Pelosi Index, specifically the 1-month trailing percentage return figures found under "1M", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified month.

If the Nancy Pelosi Index’s 1-month trailing percentage return figure for the last trading day of the specified month is not published by the time that the figure for the first trading day of the next month is published, this market will resolve based on the most recent 1-month trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior to the last trading day of the specified month.

The resolution source for S&P 500 ("S&P") is: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

Information from the "Historical Prices" table for the S&P 500 will be used to resolve this market. The S&P 500’s 1-month trailing percentage return will be calculated as the percentage change between the S&P 500’s closing price on the final trading day of the specified month and its closing price on the same calendar day of the previous month. If the relevant day in the previous month was not a trading day, the most recent trading day before this day will be used. If the same calendar day does not exist in the previous month, the return will be calculated using the final trading day of the previous month. Note that all relevant figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If either of the relevant days lack a specified closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price for that day.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price or 1-month return figure published for each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If both indices perform exactly the same over this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve 50-50.

Updates to historical prices or figures displayed by any of the indices subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are later updated.

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

>$7,040
$3,096 Vol.
12%

>$6,960
$853 Vol.
52%

>$6,900
$807 Vol.
74%

>$6,840
$1,963 Vol.
79%

>$6,760
$1,961 Vol.
79%

>$6,600
$728 Vol.
95%

Contexto del Mercado

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

Reglas

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

Contexto del Mercado

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

Acerca de

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

>$7,040$3,096 Vol.12%Comprar Sí14¢Comprar No90¢

>$6,960$853 Vol.52%Comprar Sí94¢Comprar No89¢

>$6,900$807 Vol.74%Comprar Sí97.2¢Comprar No49.6¢

>$6,840$1,963 Vol.79%Comprar Sí97.5¢Comprar No40.0¢

>$6,760$1,961 Vol.79%Comprar Sí92¢Comprar No34¢

>$6,600$728 Vol.95%Comprar Sí97.3¢Comprar No6.4¢

Contexto del Mercado

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

Reglas

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

Contexto del Mercado

¿S&P 500 (SPX) por encima de ___ a finales de enero?

Acerca de

>$7,040
$3,096 Vol.
12%

>$6,960
$853 Vol.
52%

>$6,900
$807 Vol.
74%

>$6,840
$1,963 Vol.
79%

>$6,760
$1,961 Vol.
79%

>$6,600
$728 Vol.
95%