Name: ¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?
Start: 2026-01-14T23:09:14.800548Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of January 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

4-5"

7-8"

5-6"

6-7"

3-4"

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Washington D.C. for the 3-day weekend of January 24 through January 26 (inclusive) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figures for January 24, January 25, and January 26 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "Washington Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx link once that figure is finalized for the specified days. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

¿Será la extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano entre 4,6 y 4,8 millones de kilómetros cuadrados?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

¿Será la máxima extensión de hielo marino del Ártico este invierno de entre 14,2 y 14,4 millones de kilómetros cuadrados?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

¿Habrá 8 o más terremotos de magnitud 7.0 o superior en todo el mundo para el 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

¿Un terremoto de magnitud 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

¿Un terremoto de 9,0 o más antes de 2027?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

¿SpaceX tendrá 12 o más lanzamientos en enero?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

<3"
$714 Vol.
42%

3-4"
$254 Vol.
32%

4-5"
$6,115 Vol.
28%

5-6"
$373 Vol.
14%

6-7"
$1,085 Vol.
2%

7-8"
$705 Vol.
1%

>8"
$1,014 Vol.
4%

Contexto del Mercado

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

Reglas

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

Contexto del Mercado

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

Acerca de

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

<3"$714 Vol.42%Comprar Sí50¢Comprar No67¢

3-4"$254 Vol.32%Comprar Sí41¢Comprar No77¢

4-5"$6,115 Vol.28%Comprar Sí37¢Comprar No81¢

5-6"$373 Vol.14%Comprar Sí23¢Comprar No95¢

6-7"$1,085 Vol.2%Comprar Sí3.0¢Comprar No98.9¢

7-8"$705 Vol.1%Comprar Sí1.0¢Comprar No99.5¢

>8"$1,014 Vol.4%Comprar Sí6.1¢Comprar No98.8¢

Contexto del Mercado

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

Reglas

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

Contexto del Mercado

¿Precipitación en Seattle en enero?

Acerca de

<3"
$714 Vol.
42%

3-4"
$254 Vol.
32%

4-5"
$6,115 Vol.
28%

5-6"
$373 Vol.
14%

6-7"
$1,085 Vol.
2%

7-8"
$705 Vol.
1%

>8"
$1,014 Vol.
4%