**Recent energy price spikes and elevated input costs have positioned higher September 2026 PPI YoY readings as the market-implied frontrunners.** The August final demand PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts, with goods advancing 1.1% and energy surging 4.2%, largely from diesel. The September ISM Manufacturing Prices Index hit 77.9, the highest since early in the Iran-related conflict, reflecting widespread increases in steel, aluminum, petroleum products, and tariff-affected inputs. Traders appear to price in further acceleration, with outcomes of 5.7% and above commanding over 60% combined implied probability. The upcoming October 15 BLS release will resolve the market, with any moderation in energy or services costs representing the main swing factor.