Name: ¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?
Start: 2025-12-19T21:30:45.27386Z
End: 2026-02-01T05:00:00Z

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This market will resolve based on the AI with the highest Total P&L at the end of the OKBet Arena. The resolution source will be the leaderboard available at https://arena.okbet.trade/. Total P&L can be viewed by clicking on the wallet icon for each respective AI.

If two or more AIs are tied for the highest Total P&L at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the AI that comes first in alphabetical order.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by okbet. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2026 ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Claude

Grok

Gemini

DeepSeek

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

This market will resolve to “Human” or “AI” based on which team has the higher Team ROI at the end of the Aster Human vs AI trading competition season 2.

The Team ROI values displayed on the official Aster competition page will be used for resolution.

If both teams have the same Team ROI at the time the competition ends, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be the official Aster Human vs AI page:
https://www.asterdex.com/en/campaigns/human-vs-ai

If the competition is not completed or the official Team ROI data is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Aster. If no such data is available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve 50-50.

¿Ganarás el equipo humano o el equipo de IA la competencia de trading de Aster?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

¿Tendrá xAI el modelo de IA número 1 para el 30 de junio?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

¿Será Google la primera empresa en lograr que un modelo de IA alcance 1500 en Chatbot Arena antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

¿Tendrá OpenAI el mejor modelo de IA para programación el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve according to the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins the most prize money in the final episode. If multiple players tie for most prize money this market will resolve according to the winning contestant whose listed number is highest. 

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. 

The primary resolution source will be the final episode of the Beast Games, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿El Jugador 167 ganará Beast Games: Temporada 2?

This market will resolve according to the bracket containing the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins the most prize money in the final episode. If multiple players tie for most prize money this money will resolve according to the winning contestant whose listed number is highest. 

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. 

The primary resolution source will be the final episode of the Beast Games, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Ganará un concursante numerado del 151 al 175 Beast Games: Temporada 2?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the BLAST Bounty Winter 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for January 22 - 25, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, BLAST (https://blast.tv/cs/tournaments/bounty-2026-season-1).

Will Team Vitality win Blast Bounty Winter 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Descenso de la industria de IA para el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends 2026 LEC Versus.

If the 2026 LEC Versus is postponed after July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿G2 Esports ganará el LEC 2026 Versus?

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Ganará Scottie Scheffler el torneo Masters de 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends Pro League (LPL) 2026 season.

If the 2026 LPL season is postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the LPL league organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Ganará Bilibili Gaming la temporada LPL 2026?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

¿Ganaré Michigan el Torneo de la NCAA 2026?

This market will resolve to the team that wins the LCK Cup 2026 scheduled for Jan 14 - March 1.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the LCK Cup 2026 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".

If the LCK Cup 2026 is cancelled, postponed after March 12, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/LCK/2026/Cup). 

Will Gen.G win the LCK Cup 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends Champions Korea (LCK) 2026 season playoffs.

If the 2026 LCK season is postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Ganará Gen.G Esports los playoffs de la temporada LCK 2026?

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes the 2025-2026 NBA Regular Season with the best record in the league.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to finish the regular Season with the best record.

If multiple teams are tied for most wins in the 2025-26 NBA Regular Season, this market will resolve in favor of the team who receives home court advantage for the 2026 NBA playoffs. A list of the NBA’s Tiebreak Procedures can be found here: https://ak-static-int.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/06/NBA_Tiebreaker_Procedures.pdf

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

¿Terminarán los Oklahoma City Thunder con el mejor récord en la NBA?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

¿Será un dLLM el principal modelo de IA antes de 2027?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. 

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

¿Será Mercedes el Campeón de Constructores de la F1 de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

¿OpenAI saldrá a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

Contestants in Beast Games: Season 2 are divided into two teams: Strong and Smart. This market will resolve according to the name of the team to which the winning contestant belongs.

This market will resolve to "Strong" if the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 belongs to the Strong team. If the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 belongs to the Smart team, this market will resolve to "Smart".

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins the most prize money in the final episode. If multiple players tie for most prize money this money will resolve according to the team of the winning contestant whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. 

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. 

The primary resolution source will be the final episode of the Beast Games, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Será el ganador de Beast Games: Temporada 2 Fuerte o Inteligente?

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The American Express tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the 2026 The American Express tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

If an unlisted player wins the 2026 The American Express tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Will Takumi Kanaya win the 2026 The American Express tournament?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the listed division for the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. 

If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”. 

If multiple teams share the same record, official NBA tie breaking rules will be used to determine the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

¿Ganarán los Boston Celtics la División Atlántica de la NBA 2025–2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Krakow 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for January 28 - February 8, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, ESL Gaming (https://pro.eslgaming.com/tour/cs/krakow/).

¿Ganará Team Vitality el IEM Cracovia 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

GPT
$16,823 Vol.
87%

Grok
$20,733 Vol.
7%

Claude
$26,027 Vol.
5%

Gemini
$26,604 Vol.
3%

DeepSeek
$21,544 Vol.
1%

Contexto del Mercado

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

Reglas

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

Contexto del Mercado

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

Acerca de

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

GPT$16,823 Vol.87%Comprar Sí88.5¢Comprar No14.4¢

Grok$20,733 Vol.7%Comprar Sí7.2¢Comprar No93.9¢

Claude$26,027 Vol.5%Comprar Sí5.9¢Comprar No96.0¢

Gemini$26,604 Vol.3%Comprar Sí4.6¢Comprar No98.5¢

DeepSeek$21,544 Vol.1%Comprar Sí1.6¢Comprar No99.1¢

Contexto del Mercado

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

Reglas

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

Contexto del Mercado

¿Ganador del concurso de trading con IA de Okbet Arena?

Acerca de

GPT
$16,823 Vol.
87%

Grok
$20,733 Vol.
7%

Claude
$26,027 Vol.
5%

Gemini
$26,604 Vol.
3%

DeepSeek
$21,544 Vol.
1%