Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 5000-5500 US flight delays on March 24 at 38.7% implied probability, aligning with historical spring averages of 4,500-6,000 delays amid stable airline schedules and no major disruptions signaled by FAA preliminary data from March 23 showing 4,200 delays. Mild weather forecasts across key hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York—scattered showers in the Southeast but clearing Northeast conditions—bolster this range, reducing risks of widespread ground stops or tarmac backups seen in recent winter storms. Lower odds for >8000 (18%) reflect optimism over air traffic control staffing improvements post-January NOTAM outage, though spring break volumes could push toward 6000-6500 (17.5%) if convective weather intensifies. Upcoming FAA daily reports will refine assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Número de vuelos de EE. UU. retrasados el 24 de marzo?
¿Número de vuelos de EE. UU. retrasados el 24 de marzo?
6000-6500 18%
>8000 16%
5500-6000 14%
6500-7000 8%
$6,868 Vol.
$6,868 Vol.
<5000
5%
5000-5500
40%
5500-6000
14%
6000-6500
18%
6500-7000
8%
7000-7500
8%
7500-8000
3%
>8000
18%
6000-6500 18%
>8000 16%
5500-6000 14%
6500-7000 8%
$6,868 Vol.
$6,868 Vol.
<5000
5%
5000-5500
40%
5500-6000
14%
6000-6500
18%
6500-7000
8%
7000-7500
8%
7500-8000
3%
>8000
18%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 5000-5500 US flight delays on March 24 at 38.7% implied probability, aligning with historical spring averages of 4,500-6,000 delays amid stable airline schedules and no major disruptions signaled by FAA preliminary data from March 23 showing 4,200 delays. Mild weather forecasts across key hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and New York—scattered showers in the Southeast but clearing Northeast conditions—bolster this range, reducing risks of widespread ground stops or tarmac backups seen in recent winter storms. Lower odds for >8000 (18%) reflect optimism over air traffic control staffing improvements post-January NOTAM outage, though spring break volumes could push toward 6000-6500 (17.5%) if convective weather intensifies. Upcoming FAA daily reports will refine assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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