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Política·Mojtaba

¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

Market icon
Política·Mojtaba

¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

$5,166,950 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$5,166,950 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de marzo

$2,963,721 Vol.

3%

30 de abril

$1,330,300 Vol.

22%

31 de mayo

$35,091 Vol.

31%

30 de junio

$14,537 Vol.

39%

31 de diciembre

$823,466 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating conflict, triggering the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. Recent reports from Iranian officials and Western media confirm Mojtaba's injuries from follow-up strikes, with no public appearances since; his March 13 address aired via state TV, and a March 20 statement named the new year for "resistance economy" while rejecting de-escalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominates amid a reported power vacuum, fueling trader focus on IRGC consolidation, health updates, or diplomatic breakthroughs that could avert further leadership turmoil before year-end.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating conflict, triggering the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. Recent reports from Iranian officials and Western media confirm Mojtaba's injuries from follow-up strikes, with no public appearances since; his March 13 address aired via state TV, and a March 20 statement named the new year for "resistance economy" while rejecting de-escalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominates amid a reported power vacuum, fueling trader focus on IRGC consolidation, health updates, or diplomatic breakthroughs that could avert further leadership turmoil before year-end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating conflict, triggering the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. Recent reports from Iranian officials and Western media confirm Mojtaba's injuries from follow-up strikes, with no public appearances since; his March 13 address aired via state TV, and a March 20 statement named the new year for "resistance economy" while rejecting de-escalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominates amid a reported power vacuum, fueling trader focus on IRGC consolidation, health updates, or diplomatic breakthroughs that could avert further leadership turmoil before year-end.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, was assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating conflict, triggering the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8. Recent reports from Iranian officials and Western media confirm Mojtaba's injuries from follow-up strikes, with no public appearances since; his March 13 address aired via state TV, and a March 20 statement named the new year for "resistance economy" while rejecting de-escalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominates amid a reported power vacuum, fueling trader focus on IRGC consolidation, health updates, or diplomatic breakthroughs that could avert further leadership turmoil before year-end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 53%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 39%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 53¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 53% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" ha generado $5.2 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 9, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 53%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 53% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 39%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.