Name: How many viewers will the debate get?
Start: 2024-09-04T22:59:16.307972Z
End: 2024-09-10T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the number of viewers for the ABC Debate.

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has fewer than 50,000,000 viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


<50m

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has 50,000,000 (inclusive) to 55,000,000 (exclusive) viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


50-55m

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has 55,000,000 (inclusive) to 60,000,000 (exclusive) viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


55-60m

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has 60,000,000 (inclusive) to 65,000,000 (exclusive) viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


60-65m

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has 65,000,000 (inclusive) to 70,000,000 (exclusive) viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


65-70m

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has 70,000,000 (inclusive) to 75,000,000 (exclusive) viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


70-75m

This market refers to the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, 2024 has 75,000,000 or more viewers according to Nielsen. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the debate within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.


75m+

How many viewers will the debate get?

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

¿Ganará JD Vance las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2028?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

This market will resolve according to the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins the most prize money in the final episode. If multiple players tie for most prize money this market will resolve according to the winning contestant whose listed number is highest. 

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. 

The primary resolution source will be the final episode of the Beast Games, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿El Jugador 167 ganará Beast Games: Temporada 2?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. 

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. 

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la carrera por la gobernación de Arizona en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the bracket containing the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the winner, this market will resolve according to the contestant who wins the most prize money in the final episode. If multiple players tie for most prize money this money will resolve according to the winning contestant whose listed number is highest. 

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. 

The primary resolution source will be the final episode of the Beast Games, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Ganará un concursante numerado del 151 al 175 Beast Games: Temporada 2?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

¿Trump respaldará a Steve Hilton en CA-Gov para el 2 de noviembre de 2026, hora del Este?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Tucker Carlson entrevistará a Trump antes del 28 de febrero?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la carrera por el Senado en Delaware en 2026?

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

¿Ganarán los demócratas la elección presidencial de Estados Unidos de 2028?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

¿Eric Swalwell ganará la elección para gobernador de California en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

¿Ganará Dan Sullivan la carrera por el Senado de Alaska en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por la gobernación de Alabama en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera para el Senado de Alabama en 2026?

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

¿Ganarán los republicanos la carrera por el Senado en Carolina del Sur en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.  

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".  

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

¿Ganarà Tom Begich las elecciones para gobernador de Alaska en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Melania (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on February 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

¿Logrará "Melania" al menos 30 puntos en el Tomatometer de Rotten Tomatoes?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed company/organization runs one or more advertisements during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LX on Fox, scheduled for February 8, 2026, at 6:30 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If an advertisement is co-funded or co-branded by multiple companies, all listed companies involved will count as having advertised.

Any brand which is at least 50% owned by a listed company will count for the parent company, such or Beats for Apple. 

If this game is delayed or postponed past February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The advertisement must air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the National Broadcast of Super Bowl LX on Fox, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿OpenAI emitirá un anuncio durante el Super Bowl LX?

Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks in Iowa on on January 27, 2026 (see: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on January 27, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the speech in Iowa (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of views any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first day after being posted is greater than or equal to 50 million by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.


How many viewers will the debate get?

<50m
$79,948 Vol.
No

50-55m
$71,090 Vol.
No

55-60m
$90,725 Vol.
No

60-65m
$53,422 Vol.
No

65-70m
$71,077 Vol.
Yes

70-75m
$29,960 Vol.
No

75m+
$62,722 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

How many viewers will the debate get?

Reglas

How many viewers will the debate get?

Contexto del Mercado

How many viewers will the debate get?

Acerca de

How many viewers will the debate get?

<50m$79,948 Vol.No

50-55m$71,090 Vol.No

55-60m$90,725 Vol.No

60-65m$53,422 Vol.No

65-70m$71,077 Vol.Yes

70-75m$29,960 Vol.No

75m+$62,722 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

How many viewers will the debate get?

Reglas

How many viewers will the debate get?

Contexto del Mercado

How many viewers will the debate get?

Acerca de

<50m
$79,948 Vol.
No

50-55m
$71,090 Vol.
No

55-60m
$90,725 Vol.
No

60-65m
$53,422 Vol.
No

65-70m
$71,077 Vol.
Yes

70-75m
$29,960 Vol.
No

75m+
$62,722 Vol.
No