The March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report revealed a resilient U.S. labor market, adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—and edging the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4%, though partly due to a shrinking labor force. FOMC projections from March 18 peg the year-end rate at a median 4.4%, with private forecasts like CBO's anticipating a 4.6% peak amid moderating GDP growth and policy shifts under the Trump administration. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, pricing a modest rise driven by cooling wage pressures and potential tariff impacts. Key catalysts ahead include the April jobs release on May 2 and the May FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations and influence hiring dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$346,843 Vol.
10 ene 2026
5,0%
47%
5.5%
26%
6.0%
18%
7.0%
15%
10,0%
6%
$346,843 Vol.
5,0%
$82,446 Vol.
47%
5.5%
$179,437 Vol.
26%
6.0%
$49,163 Vol.
18%
7.0%
$16,586 Vol.
15%
10,0%
$19,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report revealed a resilient U.S. labor market, adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—and edging the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4%, though partly due to a shrinking labor force. FOMC projections from March 18 peg the year-end rate at a median 4.4%, with private forecasts like CBO's anticipating a 4.6% peak amid moderating GDP growth and policy shifts under the Trump administration. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, pricing a modest rise driven by cooling wage pressures and potential tariff impacts. Key catalysts ahead include the April jobs release on May 2 and the May FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations and influence hiring dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$346,843Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report revealed a resilient U.S. labor market, adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—and edging the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4%, though partly due to a shrinking labor force. FOMC projections from March 18 peg the year-end rate at a median 4.4%, with private forecasts like CBO's anticipating a 4.6% peak amid moderating GDP growth and policy shifts under the Trump administration. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, pricing a modest rise driven by cooling wage pressures and potential tariff impacts. Key catalysts ahead include the April jobs release on May 2 and the May FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations and influence hiring dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$346,843Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report revealed a resilient U.S. labor market, adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—and edging the unemployment rate down to 4.3% from 4.4%, though partly due to a shrinking labor force. FOMC projections from March 18 peg the year-end rate at a median 4.4%, with private forecasts like CBO's anticipating a 4.6% peak amid moderating GDP growth and policy shifts under the Trump administration. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, pricing a modest rise driven by cooling wage pressures and potential tariff impacts. Key catalysts ahead include the April jobs release on May 2 and the May FOMC meeting, which could recalibrate rate cut expectations and influence hiring dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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