Turkey's dramatic 1-0 playoff victory over Kosovo two days ago finalized Group D—USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey—elevating trader consensus to a razor-thin contest between the host USMNT (40.5%) and resurgent Turkey (38%), the latter ending a 24-year World Cup absence on momentum from UEFA's grueling qualifiers. The USMNT holds a slight edge via home advantage in multiple group matches and deeper squad options under recent form in friendlies, but Turkey's stylistic edge in counterattacks and Paraguay's physicality from a strong CONMEBOL campaign (16%) keep the race tight, with Australia's Socceroos (8.1%) as longshots after a demanding AFC path. No major injuries reported, underscoring the group stage volatility where upsets loom large.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEstados Unidos 41%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 38%
Paraguay 16%
Australia 8.1%
$14,921 Vol.
$14,921 Vol.
Estados Unidos
41%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
38%
Paraguay
16%
Australia
8%
Estados Unidos 41%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 38%
Paraguay 16%
Australia 8.1%
$14,921 Vol.
$14,921 Vol.
Estados Unidos
41%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
38%
Paraguay
16%
Australia
8%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Turkey's dramatic 1-0 playoff victory over Kosovo two days ago finalized Group D—USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey—elevating trader consensus to a razor-thin contest between the host USMNT (40.5%) and resurgent Turkey (38%), the latter ending a 24-year World Cup absence on momentum from UEFA's grueling qualifiers. The USMNT holds a slight edge via home advantage in multiple group matches and deeper squad options under recent form in friendlies, but Turkey's stylistic edge in counterattacks and Paraguay's physicality from a strong CONMEBOL campaign (16%) keep the race tight, with Australia's Socceroos (8.1%) as longshots after a demanding AFC path. No major injuries reported, underscoring the group stage volatility where upsets loom large.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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