Escalating US-Iran tensions, including President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have propelled Polymarket's trader consensus to a 69.5% implied probability for June WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84, with the contract recently settling at $101.17 and trading near $102 per barrel. A sharper-than-expected 4.3 million barrel US crude inventory draw reported by EIA for the week ended May 8 underscores tightening supply balances, offsetting OPEC+'s symbolic May 3 output increase of 188,000 barrels per day. Yesterday's 3% price surge to $104+ reflects risk premiums from stalled war resolution, though revised-lower 2026 global demand forecasts add caution; watch May 20 EIA data for near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿En qué se asentará el petróleo crudo (CL) en junio?
¿En qué se asentará el petróleo crudo (CL) en junio?
>$84 70%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 7.7%
$63-$70 3.4%
$158,825 Vol.
$158,825 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
70%
>$84 70%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 7.7%
$63-$70 3.4%
$158,825 Vol.
$158,825 Vol.
< $42
2%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
70%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating US-Iran tensions, including President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have propelled Polymarket's trader consensus to a 69.5% implied probability for June WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84, with the contract recently settling at $101.17 and trading near $102 per barrel. A sharper-than-expected 4.3 million barrel US crude inventory draw reported by EIA for the week ended May 8 underscores tightening supply balances, offsetting OPEC+'s symbolic May 3 output increase of 188,000 barrels per day. Yesterday's 3% price surge to $104+ reflects risk premiums from stalled war resolution, though revised-lower 2026 global demand forecasts add caution; watch May 20 EIA data for near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes