Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district into a heavily Democratic-leaning seat, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6 and prior results showing double-digit Democratic margins. This prompted the prior Republican incumbent to seek another district, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to run here. Forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including Bera as the frontrunner, against limited Republican opposition. These structural changes and candidate alignments underpin trader consensus around an 86% implied probability for a Democratic winner.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$26,313 Vol.
$26,313 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
86%
Partido Republicano
4%
$26,313 Vol.
$26,313 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,173 Vol.
86%
Partido Republicano
$12,141 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district into a heavily Democratic-leaning seat, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6 and prior results showing double-digit Democratic margins. This prompted the prior Republican incumbent to seek another district, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to run here. Forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including Bera as the frontrunner, against limited Republican opposition. These structural changes and candidate alignments underpin trader consensus around an 86% implied probability for a Democratic winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$26,313Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district into a heavily Democratic-leaning seat, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6 and prior results showing double-digit Democratic margins. This prompted the prior Republican incumbent to seek another district, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to run here. Forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including Bera as the frontrunner, against limited Republican opposition. These structural changes and candidate alignments underpin trader consensus around an 86% implied probability for a Democratic winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,313Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 3rd congressional district into a heavily Democratic-leaning seat, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6 and prior results showing double-digit Democratic margins. This prompted the prior Republican incumbent to seek another district, while Democratic Representative Ami Bera relocated to run here. Forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid or Safe Democratic. The June 2 nonpartisan primary features multiple Democratic candidates, including Bera as the frontrunner, against limited Republican opposition. These structural changes and candidate alignments underpin trader consensus around an 86% implied probability for a Democratic winner.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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