Democrat Kirsten Engel maintains a decisive lead over Republican Dave Giles in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District House race, capturing 58.5% of votes to Giles's 40.1% with over 90% of ballots counted as of November 7, 2024. Major outlets including AP, CNN, and Fox News have projected Engel's victory in this safely Democratic district—where Biden won by 20 points in 2020—bolstered by strong Maricopa County turnout and favorable remaining mail-in ballots. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects the insurmountable margin barring extraordinary developments like proven widespread fraud, successful legal challenges, or a dramatic recount shift, none of which show evidence amid routine certification expected by early December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAZ-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Kirsten Engel maintains a decisive lead over Republican Dave Giles in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District House race, capturing 58.5% of votes to Giles's 40.1% with over 90% of ballots counted as of November 7, 2024. Major outlets including AP, CNN, and Fox News have projected Engel's victory in this safely Democratic district—where Biden won by 20 points in 2020—bolstered by strong Maricopa County turnout and favorable remaining mail-in ballots. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects the insurmountable margin barring extraordinary developments like proven widespread fraud, successful legal challenges, or a dramatic recount shift, none of which show evidence amid routine certification expected by early December.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Kirsten Engel maintains a decisive lead over Republican Dave Giles in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District House race, capturing 58.5% of votes to Giles's 40.1% with over 90% of ballots counted as of November 7, 2024. Major outlets including AP, CNN, and Fox News have projected Engel's victory in this safely Democratic district—where Biden won by 20 points in 2020—bolstered by strong Maricopa County turnout and favorable remaining mail-in ballots. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects the insurmountable margin barring extraordinary developments like proven widespread fraud, successful legal challenges, or a dramatic recount shift, none of which show evidence amid routine certification expected by early December.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democrat Kirsten Engel maintains a decisive lead over Republican Dave Giles in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District House race, capturing 58.5% of votes to Giles's 40.1% with over 90% of ballots counted as of November 7, 2024. Major outlets including AP, CNN, and Fox News have projected Engel's victory in this safely Democratic district—where Biden won by 20 points in 2020—bolstered by strong Maricopa County turnout and favorable remaining mail-in ballots. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for Democrats reflects the insurmountable margin barring extraordinary developments like proven widespread fraud, successful legal challenges, or a dramatic recount shift, none of which show evidence amid routine certification expected by early December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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