The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the AZ-03 House election market due to the district’s entrenched D+22 partisan voter index, which has produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Yassamin Ansari, first elected in 2024, faces only token opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with limited resources, offering no evident path to competitiveness in this safely Democratic seat. Trader consensus aligns with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, all classifying the race as Solid Democratic. A late primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national wave could theoretically shift dynamics before November, though current evidence points to structural stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAZ-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,983 Vol.
$11,983 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
7%
$11,983 Vol.
$11,983 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$7,686 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$4,297 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the AZ-03 House election market due to the district’s entrenched D+22 partisan voter index, which has produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Yassamin Ansari, first elected in 2024, faces only token opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with limited resources, offering no evident path to competitiveness in this safely Democratic seat. Trader consensus aligns with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, all classifying the race as Solid Democratic. A late primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national wave could theoretically shift dynamics before November, though current evidence points to structural stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$11,983Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the AZ-03 House election market due to the district’s entrenched D+22 partisan voter index, which has produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Yassamin Ansari, first elected in 2024, faces only token opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with limited resources, offering no evident path to competitiveness in this safely Democratic seat. Trader consensus aligns with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, all classifying the race as Solid Democratic. A late primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national wave could theoretically shift dynamics before November, though current evidence points to structural stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,983Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the AZ-03 House election market due to the district’s entrenched D+22 partisan voter index, which has produced consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Yassamin Ansari, first elected in 2024, faces only token opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican primary contenders remain low-profile with limited resources, offering no evident path to competitiveness in this safely Democratic seat. Trader consensus aligns with nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, all classifying the race as Solid Democratic. A late primary upset, major scandal, or unforeseen national wave could theoretically shift dynamics before November, though current evidence points to structural stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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