The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the AR-04 House race, reflecting the district’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Bruce Westerman secured the nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election against Democrat James Russell, who prevailed in a close primary contest. The district’s rural character and voting patterns have produced Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent House races, limiting Democratic opportunities absent a significant national shift or late-cycle development affecting the incumbent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAR-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AR-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$15,830 Vol.
$15,830 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demf3crata
4%
$15,830 Vol.
$15,830 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$9,581 Vol.
94%
Partido Demf3crata
$6,248 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the AR-04 House race, reflecting the district’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Bruce Westerman secured the nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election against Democrat James Russell, who prevailed in a close primary contest. The district’s rural character and voting patterns have produced Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent House races, limiting Democratic opportunities absent a significant national shift or late-cycle development affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$15,830Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the AR-04 House race, reflecting the district’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Bruce Westerman secured the nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election against Democrat James Russell, who prevailed in a close primary contest. The district’s rural character and voting patterns have produced Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent House races, limiting Democratic opportunities absent a significant national shift or late-cycle development affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$15,830Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the AR-04 House race, reflecting the district’s R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Incumbent Rep. Bruce Westerman secured the nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026 primary and enters the November 3 general election against Democrat James Russell, who prevailed in a close primary contest. The district’s rural character and voting patterns have produced Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent House races, limiting Democratic opportunities absent a significant national shift or late-cycle development affecting the incumbent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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