President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$1,151Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,151Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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