President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to convert Alcatraz Island from a National Park Service historic site into a Bureau of Prisons facility marks the primary recent push to reopen it as an operational prison, yet trader consensus reflects 92% odds against this by year-end due to steep structural, financial, and legal barriers. Ongoing NPS preservation projects, including cell house closures through 2028, underscore its protected status as a National Historic Landmark, while California officials like Governor Newsom and former House Speaker Pelosi have voiced strong opposition amid feasibility concerns over erosion, water supply, and costs exceeding initial estimates. No congressional appropriations or transfer actions have advanced since the proposal, with budget negotiations ongoing but timelines too compressed for full reactivation before December 31. Late-breaking executive orders or bipartisan support could shift dynamics, though historical precedents for such conversions remain rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to convert Alcatraz Island from a National Park Service historic site into a Bureau of Prisons facility marks the primary recent push to reopen it as an operational prison, yet trader consensus reflects 92% odds against this by year-end due to steep structural, financial, and legal barriers. Ongoing NPS preservation projects, including cell house closures through 2028, underscore its protected status as a National Historic Landmark, while California officials like Governor Newsom and former House Speaker Pelosi have voiced strong opposition amid feasibility concerns over erosion, water supply, and costs exceeding initial estimates. No congressional appropriations or transfer actions have advanced since the proposal, with budget negotiations ongoing but timelines too compressed for full reactivation before December 31. Late-breaking executive orders or bipartisan support could shift dynamics, though historical precedents for such conversions remain rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$1,151Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to convert Alcatraz Island from a National Park Service historic site into a Bureau of Prisons facility marks the primary recent push to reopen it as an operational prison, yet trader consensus reflects 92% odds against this by year-end due to steep structural, financial, and legal barriers. Ongoing NPS preservation projects, including cell house closures through 2028, underscore its protected status as a National Historic Landmark, while California officials like Governor Newsom and former House Speaker Pelosi have voiced strong opposition amid feasibility concerns over erosion, water supply, and costs exceeding initial estimates. No congressional appropriations or transfer actions have advanced since the proposal, with budget negotiations ongoing but timelines too compressed for full reactivation before December 31. Late-breaking executive orders or bipartisan support could shift dynamics, though historical precedents for such conversions remain rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,151Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million to convert Alcatraz Island from a National Park Service historic site into a Bureau of Prisons facility marks the primary recent push to reopen it as an operational prison, yet trader consensus reflects 92% odds against this by year-end due to steep structural, financial, and legal barriers. Ongoing NPS preservation projects, including cell house closures through 2028, underscore its protected status as a National Historic Landmark, while California officials like Governor Newsom and former House Speaker Pelosi have voiced strong opposition amid feasibility concerns over erosion, water supply, and costs exceeding initial estimates. No congressional appropriations or transfer actions have advanced since the proposal, with budget negotiations ongoing but timelines too compressed for full reactivation before December 31. Late-breaking executive orders or bipartisan support could shift dynamics, though historical precedents for such conversions remain rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes