Recent USDA Ag in Drought data place roughly 23% of the U.S. hog inventory in moderate or worse drought (D1+ on the U.S. Drought Monitor), aligning with the tightly clustered 15–24%, 25–34%, and 35–44% market outcomes near 48–49% implied probability. This reflects overlapping drought expansion in parts of the Lower Midwest and Southeast against improvements across the northern Plains, where major hog-producing states such as Iowa and Minnesota hold concentrated inventory. Soil moisture deficits, limited recent rainfall, and the precise spatial alignment of drought polygons with production-weighted county data drive week-to-week shifts. Traders weigh these factors against the next monitor update and any late-September precipitation effects on the final October 6 reading.