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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?

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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for the date of September 9, 2022, at check time, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for September 9, 2022, at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats and Republicans at an equal percentage of support for the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on September 10, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of September 9 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at September 11, 12 PM ET. If data for September 9, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for the date of September 9, 2022, at check time, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for September 9, 2022, at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats and Republicans at an equal percentage of support for the resolution date, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on September 10, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of September 9 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at September 11, 12 PM ET. If data for September 9, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Aug 23, 2022. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" es "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on September 9?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.