Spain's position as the top trader consensus at 16% implied probability stems from their ascent to No. 1 in the latest FIFA rankings after topping their UEFA group in March qualifiers, bolstered by Euro 2024 momentum and stars like Lamine Yamal driving a dynamic attack. France (12%) and England (12%) keep the race tight via direct qualification from dominant group wins, with deep squads featuring Mbappé, Bellingham, and Kane offsetting minor qualifier hiccups. Defending champions Argentina (9%) lead CONMEBOL standings despite Messi's age, while Brazil (9%) rebounded late; the expanded 48-team field, host advantages for USA/Canada/Mexico, and unresolved European playoffs heighten uncertainty among this bunched elite.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$449,427,136 Vol.
$449,427,136 Vol.
20 jul 2026
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Marruecos
2%
Uruguay
1%
Suiza
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$449,427,136 Vol.
$449,427,136 Vol.
20 jul 2026
España
$6,268,750 Vol.
16%
Inglaterra
$6,999,448 Vol.
13%
Francia
$4,958,172 Vol.
12%
Argentina
$7,153,333 Vol.
9%
Brasil
$6,722,947 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$8,255,688 Vol.
7%
Alemania
$6,949,549 Vol.
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
$9,290,831 Vol.
3%
Noruega
$7,538,998 Vol.
3%
Bélgica
$7,662,223 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$7,125,726 Vol.
2%
USA
$4,724,734 Vol.
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
$8,923,615 Vol.
2%
Marruecos
$8,992,347 Vol.
2%
Uruguay
$7,556,155 Vol.
1%
Suiza
$8,545,569 Vol.
1%
Croacia
$7,970,194 Vol.
1%
México
$6,767,292 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$8,890,807 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$8,270,639 Vol.
1%
Suecia
$281,433 Vol.
1%
Canadá
$11,833,104 Vol.
1%
Austria
$10,317,864 Vol.
1%
Corea del Sur
$13,537,275 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$11,733,003 Vol.
<1%
Costa de Marfil
$9,085,897 Vol.
<1%
Egipto
$10,679,316 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$10,268,235 Vol.
<1%
Argelia
$11,054,341 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
$11,131,969 Vol.
<1%
Túnez
$11,251,391 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$8,186,527 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$17,624,461 Vol.
<1%
Haití
$12,532,550 Vol.
<1%
Jordania
$16,571,913 Vol.
<1%
Irán
$11,525,892 Vol.
<1%
Panamá
$1,556,297 Vol.
<1%
Sudáfrica
$19,533,006 Vol.
<1%
Cabo Verde
$10,546,913 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$13,442,455 Vol.
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
$16,812,981 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
$23,903,260 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistán
$27,534,949 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain's position as the top trader consensus at 16% implied probability stems from their ascent to No. 1 in the latest FIFA rankings after topping their UEFA group in March qualifiers, bolstered by Euro 2024 momentum and stars like Lamine Yamal driving a dynamic attack. France (12%) and England (12%) keep the race tight via direct qualification from dominant group wins, with deep squads featuring Mbappé, Bellingham, and Kane offsetting minor qualifier hiccups. Defending champions Argentina (9%) lead CONMEBOL standings despite Messi's age, while Brazil (9%) rebounded late; the expanded 48-team field, host advantages for USA/Canada/Mexico, and unresolved European playoffs heighten uncertainty among this bunched elite.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volumen
$449,427,136Fecha de finalización
20 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain's position as the top trader consensus at 16% implied probability stems from their ascent to No. 1 in the latest FIFA rankings after topping their UEFA group in March qualifiers, bolstered by Euro 2024 momentum and stars like Lamine Yamal driving a dynamic attack. France (12%) and England (12%) keep the race tight via direct qualification from dominant group wins, with deep squads featuring Mbappé, Bellingham, and Kane offsetting minor qualifier hiccups. Defending champions Argentina (9%) lead CONMEBOL standings despite Messi's age, while Brazil (9%) rebounded late; the expanded 48-team field, host advantages for USA/Canada/Mexico, and unresolved European playoffs heighten uncertainty among this bunched elite.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$449,427,136Fecha de finalización
20 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's position as the top trader consensus at 16% implied probability stems from their ascent to No. 1 in the latest FIFA rankings after topping their UEFA group in March qualifiers, bolstered by Euro 2024 momentum and stars like Lamine Yamal driving a dynamic attack. France (12%) and England (12%) keep the race tight via direct qualification from dominant group wins, with deep squads featuring Mbappé, Bellingham, and Kane offsetting minor qualifier hiccups. Defending champions Argentina (9%) lead CONMEBOL standings despite Messi's age, while Brazil (9%) rebounded late; the expanded 48-team field, host advantages for USA/Canada/Mexico, and unresolved European playoffs heighten uncertainty among this bunched elite.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes