Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the March 31 completion of global qualifiers, which finalized the 48-team field including playoff winners like Turkey, Czechia, Sweden, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Their lead stems from retaining the FIFA #1 ranking after strong European qualifying performances and a deep squad blending Euro 2024 champions with emerging talents like Lamine Yamal. France (13.1%) and England (11.8%) trail closely, fueled by star-studded attacks featuring Mbappé and Kane amid recent form in Nations League and qualifiers. Defending champions Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive despite aging cores around Messi and Neymar, with the bunched odds reflecting an expanded tournament's volatility, elite depth across UEFA and CONMEBOL, and potential knockout upsets in the 12-group format.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.9%
Francia 13.0%
Inglaterra 11.8%
Argentina 9.2%
$481,361,445 Vol.
$481,361,445 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
13%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
España 15.9%
Francia 13.0%
Inglaterra 11.8%
Argentina 9.2%
$481,361,445 Vol.
$481,361,445 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
13%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain tops trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the March 31 completion of global qualifiers, which finalized the 48-team field including playoff winners like Turkey, Czechia, Sweden, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Their lead stems from retaining the FIFA #1 ranking after strong European qualifying performances and a deep squad blending Euro 2024 champions with emerging talents like Lamine Yamal. France (13.1%) and England (11.8%) trail closely, fueled by star-studded attacks featuring Mbappé and Kane amid recent form in Nations League and qualifiers. Defending champions Argentina (9.2%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive despite aging cores around Messi and Neymar, with the bunched odds reflecting an expanded tournament's volatility, elite depth across UEFA and CONMEBOL, and potential knockout upsets in the 12-group format.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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