With the 48-team field finalized after the March 31 playoffs—where Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, Türkiye, and Iraq secured spots via tense shootouts and narrow wins—trader consensus favors Spain at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph, unbeaten qualification campaign, and golden generation talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri thriving in a favorable Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cabo Verde. France (13.6%) trails closely on squad depth, Kylian Mbappé's form, and recent FIFA rankings lead, while England (11.5%), defending champions Argentina (9.3%), and Carlo Ancelotti's revitalized Brazil (8.6%) keep the race tight amid balanced group stage draws, expanded format risks, and no clear path through knockout rounds for Europe's and South America's elite contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.8%
Francia 13.6%
Inglaterra 11.5%
Argentina 9.3%
$490,307,529 Vol.
$490,307,529 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
España 15.8%
Francia 13.6%
Inglaterra 11.5%
Argentina 9.3%
$490,307,529 Vol.
$490,307,529 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the 48-team field finalized after the March 31 playoffs—where Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, Türkiye, and Iraq secured spots via tense shootouts and narrow wins—trader consensus favors Spain at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph, unbeaten qualification campaign, and golden generation talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri thriving in a favorable Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cabo Verde. France (13.6%) trails closely on squad depth, Kylian Mbappé's form, and recent FIFA rankings lead, while England (11.5%), defending champions Argentina (9.3%), and Carlo Ancelotti's revitalized Brazil (8.6%) keep the race tight amid balanced group stage draws, expanded format risks, and no clear path through knockout rounds for Europe's and South America's elite contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes