Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, bolstered by their Euro 2024 triumph, top FIFA ranking, and unbeaten Nations League run, though minor injury concerns like Mikel Merino's foot issue linger ahead of the June kickoff. England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) keep the race tight with flawless qualification campaigns and recent friendly boosts—France's resilient 2-1 victory over Brazil on March 28 despite a red card highlights their depth featuring Mbappé and emerging talents. All frontrunners secured spots before the March 31 UEFA and intercontinental playoffs concluded without upsets, amplifying competitive dynamics in the expanded 48-team format's volatile knockout stages across North American venues, where home advantage minimally favors co-host USA at just 1.6%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.3%
$449,521,498 Vol.
$449,521,498 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.3%
$449,521,498 Vol.
$449,521,498 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner, bolstered by their Euro 2024 triumph, top FIFA ranking, and unbeaten Nations League run, though minor injury concerns like Mikel Merino's foot issue linger ahead of the June kickoff. England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) keep the race tight with flawless qualification campaigns and recent friendly boosts—France's resilient 2-1 victory over Brazil on March 28 despite a red card highlights their depth featuring Mbappé and emerging talents. All frontrunners secured spots before the March 31 UEFA and intercontinental playoffs concluded without upsets, amplifying competitive dynamics in the expanded 48-team format's volatile knockout stages across North American venues, where home advantage minimally favors co-host USA at just 1.6%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes