Spain holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their dramatic penalty shootout victory over the Netherlands in the UEFA playoff second leg on March 23, confirming qualification and showcasing the golden generation's resilience with stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) trail closely after securing spots via strong group performances and France's playoff win over Croatia, reflecting deep squads featuring Bellingham, Kane, Mbappé, and Dembélé amid favorable draw positions post-December group stage reveal. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field, with no dominant favorite due to balanced European powerhouses, South American qualifiers like Argentina's top CONMEBOL finish, and minimal injury disruptions in the final pre-tournament window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.3%
$449,477,360 Vol.
$449,477,360 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.3%
$449,477,360 Vol.
$449,477,360 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their dramatic penalty shootout victory over the Netherlands in the UEFA playoff second leg on March 23, confirming qualification and showcasing the golden generation's resilience with stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) trail closely after securing spots via strong group performances and France's playoff win over Croatia, reflecting deep squads featuring Bellingham, Kane, Mbappé, and Dembélé amid favorable draw positions post-December group stage reveal. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field, with no dominant favorite due to balanced European powerhouses, South American qualifiers like Argentina's top CONMEBOL finish, and minimal injury disruptions in the final pre-tournament window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes