Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a near-perfect European qualifying campaign and seamless transition from their Euro 2024 triumph, featuring young stars like Lamine Yamal thriving in club form. France (14%), England (12%), and Argentina (9%) trail closely, reflecting deep talent pools—Mbappé's explosiveness, England's attacking depth despite qualifying inconsistencies, and Messi's enduring influence at age 39—amid an expanded 48-team field now fully set after UEFA playoffs concluded March 31 with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, and Türkiye securing spots. Brazil's squad quality keeps them viable at 9%, but no clear frontrunner emerges in this parity-driven race, with group stage draws and knockout paths adding uncertainty for all contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.8%
Francia 13.6%
Inglaterra 11.5%
Argentina 9.3%
$490,340,586 Vol.
$490,340,586 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
España 15.8%
Francia 13.6%
Inglaterra 11.5%
Argentina 9.3%
$490,340,586 Vol.
$490,340,586 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Spain holds a narrow edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a near-perfect European qualifying campaign and seamless transition from their Euro 2024 triumph, featuring young stars like Lamine Yamal thriving in club form. France (14%), England (12%), and Argentina (9%) trail closely, reflecting deep talent pools—Mbappé's explosiveness, England's attacking depth despite qualifying inconsistencies, and Messi's enduring influence at age 39—amid an expanded 48-team field now fully set after UEFA playoffs concluded March 31 with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, and Türkiye securing spots. Brazil's squad quality keeps them viable at 9%, but no clear frontrunner emerges in this parity-driven race, with group stage draws and knockout paths adding uncertainty for all contenders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes