With the 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup finalized after last week's intercontinental playoffs—including Iraq's 2-1 win over Bolivia and European triumphs for Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, and Türkiye—trader consensus crowns Spain at 15.8% implied probability, propelled by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying dominance and youthful core featuring Lamine Yamal alongside Euro 2024 winners. France (13.8%) lurks close with Kylian Mbappé's prime form and squad depth, while England's (11.5%) talent pool offsets qualifier inconsistencies. Argentina (9.2%) banks on Lionel Messi's legacy amid aging concerns, and Brazil (8.6%) rebuilds post-Rodrygo injury. The top-heavy bunching reflects elite parity, tough groups like Spain-Uruguay and France-Senegal-Norway, and upset risks in the expanded format.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 15.8%
Francia 13.8%
Inglaterra 11.6%
Argentina 9.2%
$494,689,041 Vol.
$494,689,041 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
España 15.8%
Francia 13.8%
Inglaterra 11.6%
Argentina 9.2%
$494,689,041 Vol.
$494,689,041 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
14%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
Bélgica
2%
Marruecos
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
México
1%
Croacia
1%
Suiza
1%
Ecuador
1%
Turquía
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Cezchia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Irán
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup finalized after last week's intercontinental playoffs—including Iraq's 2-1 win over Bolivia and European triumphs for Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Sweden, and Türkiye—trader consensus crowns Spain at 15.8% implied probability, propelled by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying dominance and youthful core featuring Lamine Yamal alongside Euro 2024 winners. France (13.8%) lurks close with Kylian Mbappé's prime form and squad depth, while England's (11.5%) talent pool offsets qualifier inconsistencies. Argentina (9.2%) banks on Lionel Messi's legacy amid aging concerns, and Brazil (8.6%) rebuilds post-Rodrygo injury. The top-heavy bunching reflects elite parity, tough groups like Spain-Uruguay and France-Senegal-Norway, and upset risks in the expanded format.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes