Trader consensus pricing "No" at 97.5% for Trump resigning before 2027 reflects the high constitutional thresholds for removal, historical precedent of only one presidential resignation, and absence of acute health, legal, or political triggers. Trump remains actively engaged in office as of October 2026, pursuing policy priorities and public appearances without announced departure plans. Republican congressional majorities and his personal incentives to retain power further reduce near-term exit risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a documented incapacitating health event prompting 25th Amendment action, bipartisan pressure following severe scandal or midterm losses, or formal invocation proceedings if cognitive or physical decline becomes verifiable through official channels.