Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Kadugli by March 31, driven by the absence of verified breakthroughs despite the Rapid Support Forces' renewed siege on the South Kordofan capital since early March. Sudanese Armed Forces entered the city in early February, breaking a prior two-year blockade, and recent ReliefWeb assessments through March 22 confirm ongoing encirclement amid famine but no city seizure. RSF advances have focused elsewhere, including Bara in North Kordofan on March 16 and Kurmuk border town last week, diverting resources with just days remaining. Unexpected escalation, supply disruptions, or SAF retreats could still shift dynamics, though barriers remain high given entrenched positions and seasonal rain risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Kadugli by March 31, driven by the absence of verified breakthroughs despite the Rapid Support Forces' renewed siege on the South Kordofan capital since early March. Sudanese Armed Forces entered the city in early February, breaking a prior two-year blockade, and recent ReliefWeb assessments through March 22 confirm ongoing encirclement amid famine but no city seizure. RSF advances have focused elsewhere, including Bara in North Kordofan on March 16 and Kurmuk border town last week, diverting resources with just days remaining. Unexpected escalation, supply disruptions, or SAF retreats could still shift dynamics, though barriers remain high given entrenched positions and seasonal rain risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volumen
$1,381Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Kadugli by March 31, driven by the absence of verified breakthroughs despite the Rapid Support Forces' renewed siege on the South Kordofan capital since early March. Sudanese Armed Forces entered the city in early February, breaking a prior two-year blockade, and recent ReliefWeb assessments through March 22 confirm ongoing encirclement amid famine but no city seizure. RSF advances have focused elsewhere, including Bara in North Kordofan on March 16 and Kurmuk border town last week, diverting resources with just days remaining. Unexpected escalation, supply disruptions, or SAF retreats could still shift dynamics, though barriers remain high given entrenched positions and seasonal rain risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Kadugli (https://maps.app.goo.gl/YY4PX4vESfgZtETQ6) by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Police Hospital" (مستشفى الشرطة: https://maps.app.goo.gl/nQ1tkNERZs1J4Uw2A) by the resolution date.
If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.
Volumen
$1,381Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no RSF capture of Kadugli by March 31, driven by the absence of verified breakthroughs despite the Rapid Support Forces' renewed siege on the South Kordofan capital since early March. Sudanese Armed Forces entered the city in early February, breaking a prior two-year blockade, and recent ReliefWeb assessments through March 22 confirm ongoing encirclement amid famine but no city seizure. RSF advances have focused elsewhere, including Bara in North Kordofan on March 16 and Kurmuk border town last week, diverting resources with just days remaining. Unexpected escalation, supply disruptions, or SAF retreats could still shift dynamics, though barriers remain high given entrenched positions and seasonal rain risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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