Traders overwhelmingly back "None" at 88.5% implied probability for a men's Calendar Grand Slam in 2026, reflecting the event's extreme rarity—no player has achieved it in the Open Era since Rod Laver's 1969 feat, amid grueling demands of four majors on hardcourt (Australian Open, US Open), clay (French Open), and grass (Wimbledon). Carlos Alcaraz's 11.6% share stems from his prodigious talent, capturing French Open and Wimbledon titles in 2024 at age 21 while leading Spain to Davis Cup glory, yet his Australian Open third-round exit and US Open quarterfinal defeat highlight vulnerabilities to fatigue, injuries, and rivals like Jannik Sinner. Upset potential rises if Alcaraz maintains peak fitness through all surfaces, Sinner falters with injuries, or Djokovic fully retires, but historical precedents favor overwhelming barriers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$235,114 Vol.
$235,114 Vol.
Keine
89%
Carlos Alcaraz
12%
$235,114 Vol.
$235,114 Vol.
Keine
89%
Carlos Alcaraz
12%
This market resolves to the single male player who wins the Men’s Singles titles at all four Grand Slam tournaments in 2026. The relevant 2026 Grand Slams are the Men’s Singles tournaments in the 2026 Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, and Wimbledon.
For the purpose of this market, a tournament victory is valid regardless of whether the final was won via a walkover, a mid-match retirement, or a standard completed match.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 (e.g. Alcaraz does not win the 2026 Australian Open) this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for anyone to achieve a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026 this market will resolve immediately to "None".
Otherwise, this market will resolve when the results of the final 2026 Grand Slam are official.
If any of the 2026 Grand Slam Men’s Singles Tournaments are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “None”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the organizers of the Grand Slam tournaments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders overwhelmingly back "None" at 88.5% implied probability for a men's Calendar Grand Slam in 2026, reflecting the event's extreme rarity—no player has achieved it in the Open Era since Rod Laver's 1969 feat, amid grueling demands of four majors on hardcourt (Australian Open, US Open), clay (French Open), and grass (Wimbledon). Carlos Alcaraz's 11.6% share stems from his prodigious talent, capturing French Open and Wimbledon titles in 2024 at age 21 while leading Spain to Davis Cup glory, yet his Australian Open third-round exit and US Open quarterfinal defeat highlight vulnerabilities to fatigue, injuries, and rivals like Jannik Sinner. Upset potential rises if Alcaraz maintains peak fitness through all surfaces, Sinner falters with injuries, or Djokovic fully retires, but historical precedents favor overwhelming barriers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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