Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet member to resign or be removed before 2027, driven by escalating turmoil at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, four top aides—including her chief of staff, advance director, and bodyguard—have resigned or been forced out amid a widening inspector general investigation into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources for personal events like a denied birthday party, workplace hostility, and an alleged affair with security personnel. This staff exodus echoes recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March departure amid controversies, amplifying pressure on Chavez-DeRemer. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI nominee) and Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary) trail at 10.8% and 9.6%, reflecting milder rumors without comparable probes, while "None before 2027" holds at 6.4% amid high early-administration turnover rates. Senate oversight hearings or further IG findings could accelerate shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 9.6%
Niemand vor 2027 6.0%
$1,535,630 Vol.
$1,535,630 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
11%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Niemand vor 2027
6%
Mike Waltz
3%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Scott Bessent
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 9.6%
Niemand vor 2027 6.0%
$1,535,630 Vol.
$1,535,630 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,219 Vol.
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
$693,886 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$342,196 Vol.
10%
Niemand vor 2027
$165,906 Vol.
6%
Mike Waltz
$4,298 Vol.
3%
Lee Zeldin
$40,976 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,623 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,171 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$63,962 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$3,967 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,560 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$26,010 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,797 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,687 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,910 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,374 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,792 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$3,258 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,787 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet member to resign or be removed before 2027, driven by escalating turmoil at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, four top aides—including her chief of staff, advance director, and bodyguard—have resigned or been forced out amid a widening inspector general investigation into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources for personal events like a denied birthday party, workplace hostility, and an alleged affair with security personnel. This staff exodus echoes recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March departure amid controversies, amplifying pressure on Chavez-DeRemer. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI nominee) and Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary) trail at 10.8% and 9.6%, reflecting milder rumors without comparable probes, while "None before 2027" holds at 6.4% amid high early-administration turnover rates. Senate oversight hearings or further IG findings could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volumen
$1,535,630Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet member to resign or be removed before 2027, driven by escalating turmoil at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, four top aides—including her chief of staff, advance director, and bodyguard—have resigned or been forced out amid a widening inspector general investigation into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources for personal events like a denied birthday party, workplace hostility, and an alleged affair with security personnel. This staff exodus echoes recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March departure amid controversies, amplifying pressure on Chavez-DeRemer. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI nominee) and Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary) trail at 10.8% and 9.6%, reflecting milder rumors without comparable probes, while "None before 2027" holds at 6.4% amid high early-administration turnover rates. Senate oversight hearings or further IG findings could accelerate shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,535,630Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the frontrunner at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet member to resign or be removed before 2027, driven by escalating turmoil at the Department of Labor. Over the past month, four top aides—including her chief of staff, advance director, and bodyguard—have resigned or been forced out amid a widening inspector general investigation into allegations of travel fraud, misuse of department resources for personal events like a denied birthday party, workplace hostility, and an alleged affair with security personnel. This staff exodus echoes recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March departure amid controversies, amplifying pressure on Chavez-DeRemer. Tulsi Gabbard (DNI nominee) and Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary) trail at 10.8% and 9.6%, reflecting milder rumors without comparable probes, while "None before 2027" holds at 6.4% amid high early-administration turnover rates. Senate oversight hearings or further IG findings could accelerate shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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