Traders assign the highest implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 15 and 21, reflecting OpenAI’s established cadence for incremental large language model updates rather than any fresh official announcement. No major capability demonstrations, partnership disclosures, or internal timeline shifts have surfaced in recent weeks to alter that positioning, leaving the market anchored in historical release patterns and ongoing competitive dynamics with other AI labs. The lower odds on earlier or later June windows underscore uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and testing milestones, while the “not released by June 28” outcome captures the possibility of further delays common in model development. Upcoming earnings commentary or developer events could still move these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJune 15–June 21 64%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 8–June 14 14%
June 22–June 28 7.8%
$61,117 Vol.
$61,117 Vol.
28. Juni 2026
June 1–June 7
1%
June 8–June 14
14%
June 15–June 21
57%
June 22–June 28
8%
Not released by June 28
20%
June 15–June 21 64%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 8–June 14 14%
June 22–June 28 7.8%
$61,117 Vol.
$61,117 Vol.
28. Juni 2026
June 1–June 7
$12,149 Vol.
1%
June 8–June 14
$10,610 Vol.
14%
June 15–June 21
$2,611 Vol.
57%
June 22–June 28
$2,001 Vol.
8%
Not released by June 28
$6,608 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign the highest implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 15 and 21, reflecting OpenAI’s established cadence for incremental large language model updates rather than any fresh official announcement. No major capability demonstrations, partnership disclosures, or internal timeline shifts have surfaced in recent weeks to alter that positioning, leaving the market anchored in historical release patterns and ongoing competitive dynamics with other AI labs. The lower odds on earlier or later June windows underscore uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and testing milestones, while the “not released by June 28” outcome captures the possibility of further delays common in model development. Upcoming earnings commentary or developer events could still move these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volumen
$61,117Enddatum
28. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign the highest implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 15 and 21, reflecting OpenAI’s established cadence for incremental large language model updates rather than any fresh official announcement. No major capability demonstrations, partnership disclosures, or internal timeline shifts have surfaced in recent weeks to alter that positioning, leaving the market anchored in historical release patterns and ongoing competitive dynamics with other AI labs. The lower odds on earlier or later June windows underscore uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and testing milestones, while the “not released by June 28” outcome captures the possibility of further delays common in model development. Upcoming earnings commentary or developer events could still move these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$61,117Enddatum
28. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability to a GPT-5.6 release between June 15 and 21, reflecting OpenAI’s established cadence for incremental large language model updates rather than any fresh official announcement. No major capability demonstrations, partnership disclosures, or internal timeline shifts have surfaced in recent weeks to alter that positioning, leaving the market anchored in historical release patterns and ongoing competitive dynamics with other AI labs. The lower odds on earlier or later June windows underscore uncertainty around exact feature thresholds and testing milestones, while the “not released by June 28” outcome captures the possibility of further delays common in model development. Upcoming earnings commentary or developer events could still move these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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