Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weights large language model underpins the 99.8% market-implied odds, as it led multiple coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks on arena.ai and Artificial Analysis while rivaling top U.S. systems and spurring developer downloads plus ARR growth past $300 million. This performance widened its edge over peers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, DeepSeek, and Z.ai on tracked capability metrics ahead of the August 31 resolution. A late-August model release or leaderboard update from another lab that overtakes Kimi K3 on the specific arena.ai Text Arena overall ranking remains the main scenario that could shift consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMoonshot 100.0%
Alibaba <1%
Baidu <1%
Z.ai <1%
$153,326 Vol.
$153,326 Vol.

Alibaba
Nein

Moonshot
Ja

Baidu
Nein

Z.ai
Nein

Xiaomi
Nein

DeepSeek
Nein

ByteDance
Nein

MiniMax
Nein

Meituan
Nein

Tencent
Nein

StepFun
Nein
Moonshot 100.0%
Alibaba <1%
Baidu <1%
Z.ai <1%
$153,326 Vol.
$153,326 Vol.

Alibaba
Nein

Moonshot
Ja

Baidu
Nein

Z.ai
Nein

Xiaomi
Nein

DeepSeek
Nein

ByteDance
Nein

MiniMax
Nein

Meituan
Nein

Tencent
Nein

StepFun
Nein
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weights large language model underpins the 99.8% market-implied odds, as it led multiple coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks on arena.ai and Artificial Analysis while rivaling top U.S. systems and spurring developer downloads plus ARR growth past $300 million. This performance widened its edge over peers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, DeepSeek, and Z.ai on tracked capability metrics ahead of the August 31 resolution. A late-August model release or leaderboard update from another lab that overtakes Kimi K3 on the specific arena.ai Text Arena overall ranking remains the main scenario that could shift consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen