Polymarket traders are assigning a 62% implied probability to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing March above 18,500, propelled by persistent AI enthusiasm and big tech earnings momentum, with NDX at 18,199 as of March 15—up 7.5% year-to-date. Confirmed Q4 S&P 500 profits beat estimates by 4%, fueling Magnificent Seven outperformance, while CME FedWatch tool shows 75% odds of a March 20 FOMC pause but 90bps cuts priced for 2024. Risks include hotter-than-expected PPI on March 14 and nonfarm payrolls March 8 aftermath, which spiked 10-year yields to 4.3%; historical March NDX median gain is 1.1%, but volatility could swing resolutions near key 18,000-19,000 thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$62,039 Vol.
↓ 20400
3%
↓ 20.250
3%
↓ 20100
3%
↓ 19.875
3%
↓ 19650
1%
↓ 19350
1%
↓ 18.975
1%
$62,039 Vol.
↓ 20400
3%
↓ 20.250
3%
↓ 20100
3%
↓ 19.875
3%
↓ 19650
1%
↓ 19350
1%
↓ 18.975
1%
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Note: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is represented by ^NDX on Yahoo Finance.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are assigning a 62% implied probability to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing March above 18,500, propelled by persistent AI enthusiasm and big tech earnings momentum, with NDX at 18,199 as of March 15—up 7.5% year-to-date. Confirmed Q4 S&P 500 profits beat estimates by 4%, fueling Magnificent Seven outperformance, while CME FedWatch tool shows 75% odds of a March 20 FOMC pause but 90bps cuts priced for 2024. Risks include hotter-than-expected PPI on March 14 and nonfarm payrolls March 8 aftermath, which spiked 10-year yields to 4.3%; historical March NDX median gain is 1.1%, but volatility could swing resolutions near key 18,000-19,000 thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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