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Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?

Market icon

Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?

Ended: Jan 31

Ended: Jan 31

Kein Angriff bis zum 31. Januar 100.0%

12. Januar <1%

13. Januar <1%

14. Januar <1%

Polymarket

$28,513,815 Vol.

Kein Angriff bis zum 31. Januar 100.0%

12. Januar <1%

13. Januar <1%

14. Januar <1%

Polymarket

$28,513,815 Vol.

12. Januar

$174,396 Vol.

Nein

13. Januar

$352,575 Vol.

Nein

14. Januar

$1,357,455 Vol.

Nein

15. Januar

$721,329 Vol.

Nein

16. Januar

$851,047 Vol.

Nein

17. Januar

$509,296 Vol.

Nein

18. Januar

$569,914 Vol.

Nein

19. Januar

$1,188,559 Vol.

Nein

20. Januar

$1,015,021 Vol.

Nein

21. Januar

$1,260,514 Vol.

Nein

22. Januar

$1,295,692 Vol.

Nein

23. Januar

$2,137,803 Vol.

Nein

24. Januar

$1,460,613 Vol.

Nein

25. Januar

$1,551,909 Vol.

Nein

26. Januar

$1,541,870 Vol.

Nein

27. Januar

$1,514,603 Vol.

Nein

28. Januar

$1,311,211 Vol.

Nein

29. Januar

$1,637,680 Vol.

Nein

30. Januar

$1,729,141 Vol.

Nein

31. Januar

$2,620,126 Vol.

Nein

Kein Angriff bis zum 31. Januar

$3,713,061 Vol.

Ja

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$28,513,815
Enddatum
Jan 31, 2026
Erstellt am
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kein Angriff bis zum 31. Januar" at 100%, followed by "12. Januar" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?" has generated $28.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?" is "Kein Angriff bis zum 31. Januar" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12. Januar" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Die USA schlagen den Iran als Nächstes an...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.