President Trump’s October 8 announcement extending the U.S.-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending further talks has anchored trader expectations that the truce will hold through the immediate term. Negotiators reached a tentative 60-day memorandum focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear-program limits, though implementation remains delayed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Iranian leadership divisions, and continued U.S. shipping restrictions. Pakistani-mediated channels and upcoming U.S. midterm elections on November 3 add near-term stability incentives, while persistent low-level incidents around Hormuz and unresolved nuclear benchmarks keep resolution timelines uncertain. Any escalation tied to proxy fronts or stalled Geneva signing could quickly shift probabilities.