Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most National Assembly seats across at least seven parliamentary by-elections on June 3, 2026, coinciding with nationwide local elections. This commanding position stems from recent March polls showing DP leads exceeding 50% in strongholds like Incheon Gyeyang-gu—President Lee Jae-myung's former district—and Jeonbuk Gunsan-Gimje-Buan Gap, bolstered by the ruling party's national approval around 45% amid People Power Party (PPP) slumps to 12-17%. All contested seats were previously DP-held, amplifying incumbency advantages. Potential challenges include late DP nomination controversies in districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap, voter backlash in conservative areas such as Ulsan Nam-gu Gap, or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) gains via leader Cho Kuk's candidacies splitting progressive votes, though barriers remain high absent major scandals before early voting on May 29-30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSüdkoreanische Nachwahlen: Party-Gewinner
Südkoreanische Nachwahlen: Party-Gewinner
Demokratische Partei Koreas (DP) 95.0%
Reformpartei (RP) 2.8%
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) 2.6%
Progressive Partei (PP) 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
People Power Party (PPP)
2%
Demokratische Partei Koreas (DP)
95%
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP)
3%
Progressive Partei (PP)
2%
Reformpartei (RP)
3%
Demokratische Partei Koreas (DP) 95.0%
Reformpartei (RP) 2.8%
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) 2.6%
Progressive Partei (PP) 2.2%
NEW
NEW
Jun 3, 2026
People Power Party (PPP)
$0 Vol.
2%
Demokratische Partei Koreas (DP)
$0 Vol.
95%
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP)
$0 Vol.
3%
Progressive Partei (PP)
$0 Vol.
2%
Reformpartei (RP)
$0 Vol.
3%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most National Assembly seats across at least seven parliamentary by-elections on June 3, 2026, coinciding with nationwide local elections. This commanding position stems from recent March polls showing DP leads exceeding 50% in strongholds like Incheon Gyeyang-gu—President Lee Jae-myung's former district—and Jeonbuk Gunsan-Gimje-Buan Gap, bolstered by the ruling party's national approval around 45% amid People Power Party (PPP) slumps to 12-17%. All contested seats were previously DP-held, amplifying incumbency advantages. Potential challenges include late DP nomination controversies in districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap, voter backlash in conservative areas such as Ulsan Nam-gu Gap, or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) gains via leader Cho Kuk's candidacies splitting progressive votes, though barriers remain high absent major scandals before early voting on May 29-30.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most National Assembly seats across at least seven parliamentary by-elections on June 3, 2026, coinciding with nationwide local elections. This commanding position stems from recent March polls showing DP leads exceeding 50% in strongholds like Incheon Gyeyang-gu—President Lee Jae-myung's former district—and Jeonbuk Gunsan-Gimje-Buan Gap, bolstered by the ruling party's national approval around 45% amid People Power Party (PPP) slumps to 12-17%. All contested seats were previously DP-held, amplifying incumbency advantages. Potential challenges include late DP nomination controversies in districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap, voter backlash in conservative areas such as Ulsan Nam-gu Gap, or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) gains via leader Cho Kuk's candidacies splitting progressive votes, though barriers remain high absent major scandals before early voting on May 29-30.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve to the party that wins the greatest number of National Assembly seats in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified parties in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes across all the relevant parliamentary by-elections. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed full name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 12, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) at 95% implied probability to secure the most National Assembly seats across at least seven parliamentary by-elections on June 3, 2026, coinciding with nationwide local elections. This commanding position stems from recent March polls showing DP leads exceeding 50% in strongholds like Incheon Gyeyang-gu—President Lee Jae-myung's former district—and Jeonbuk Gunsan-Gimje-Buan Gap, bolstered by the ruling party's national approval around 45% amid People Power Party (PPP) slumps to 12-17%. All contested seats were previously DP-held, amplifying incumbency advantages. Potential challenges include late DP nomination controversies in districts like Incheon Yeonsu-gu Gap, voter backlash in conservative areas such as Ulsan Nam-gu Gap, or Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) gains via leader Cho Kuk's candidacies splitting progressive votes, though barriers remain high absent major scandals before early voting on May 29-30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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