Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Microsoft (MSFT) Friday close in the $410-$420 range at 49% implied probability, reflecting a sharp 3.97% intraday drop to $415.75 amid a broader technology sector sell-off triggered by ServiceNow's earnings miss and profit-taking after MSFT's April 22 peak of $432.92. This positions the $420-$430 outcome at 34%, capturing potential stabilization before Q3 FY2026 earnings on April 29, where focus will center on Microsoft Cloud revenue acceleration offset by AI infrastructure capex straining gross margins (down to 67% last quarter). Elevated volatility stems from recent overseas AI expansion announcements highlighting cost scale, while long-term analyst targets averaging $575 underscore sustained AI-driven growth expectations versus near-term macro headwinds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$410-$420 62%
$420–$430 39%
$430–$440 16.4%
$450–$460 10.4%
<380 $
3%
$380–$390
2%
390–400 $
5%
400–410 $
28%
$410-$420
62%
$420–$430
30%
$430–$440
16%
$440-$450
11%
$450–$460
10%
$460-$470
<1%
>470 $
1%
$410-$420 62%
$420–$430 39%
$430–$440 16.4%
$450–$460 10.4%
<380 $
3%
$380–$390
2%
390–400 $
5%
400–410 $
28%
$410-$420
62%
$420–$430
30%
$430–$440
16%
$440-$450
11%
$450–$460
10%
$460-$470
<1%
>470 $
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Markt eröffnet: Apr 17, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Abwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Microsoft (MSFT) Friday close in the $410-$420 range at 49% implied probability, reflecting a sharp 3.97% intraday drop to $415.75 amid a broader technology sector sell-off triggered by ServiceNow's earnings miss and profit-taking after MSFT's April 22 peak of $432.92. This positions the $420-$430 outcome at 34%, capturing potential stabilization before Q3 FY2026 earnings on April 29, where focus will center on Microsoft Cloud revenue acceleration offset by AI infrastructure capex straining gross margins (down to 67% last quarter). Elevated volatility stems from recent overseas AI expansion announcements highlighting cost scale, while long-term analyst targets averaging $575 underscore sustained AI-driven growth expectations versus near-term macro headwinds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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