Recent El Niño development, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of early June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures through added heat release from the equatorial Pacific. This aligns with model consensus showing above-normal temperatures across most regions for June–August, building on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus data, sustaining elevated baselines into the current month. WMO seasonal outlooks further indicate a high likelihood of continued near-record warmth through 2026, though monthly anomalies can fluctuate with short-term variability in ocean-atmosphere coupling. These factors position the 1.15–1.19°C bin as the market consensus, reflecting trader assessment of official forecast guidance and observational trends rather than any single extreme scenario.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.8%
$13,876 Vol.
$13,876 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.8%
$13,876 Vol.
$13,876 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 Vol.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 Vol.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,574 Vol.
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of early June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures through added heat release from the equatorial Pacific. This aligns with model consensus showing above-normal temperatures across most regions for June–August, building on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus data, sustaining elevated baselines into the current month. WMO seasonal outlooks further indicate a high likelihood of continued near-record warmth through 2026, though monthly anomalies can fluctuate with short-term variability in ocean-atmosphere coupling. These factors position the 1.15–1.19°C bin as the market consensus, reflecting trader assessment of official forecast guidance and observational trends rather than any single extreme scenario.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$13,876Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of early June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures through added heat release from the equatorial Pacific. This aligns with model consensus showing above-normal temperatures across most regions for June–August, building on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus data, sustaining elevated baselines into the current month. WMO seasonal outlooks further indicate a high likelihood of continued near-record warmth through 2026, though monthly anomalies can fluctuate with short-term variability in ocean-atmosphere coupling. These factors position the 1.15–1.19°C bin as the market consensus, reflecting trader assessment of official forecast guidance and observational trends rather than any single extreme scenario.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$13,876Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño development, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of early June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represents the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures through added heat release from the equatorial Pacific. This aligns with model consensus showing above-normal temperatures across most regions for June–August, building on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record per Copernicus data, sustaining elevated baselines into the current month. WMO seasonal outlooks further indicate a high likelihood of continued near-record warmth through 2026, though monthly anomalies can fluctuate with short-term variability in ocean-atmosphere coupling. These factors position the 1.15–1.19°C bin as the market consensus, reflecting trader assessment of official forecast guidance and observational trends rather than any single extreme scenario.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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