Name: Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)
Start: 2025-12-29T22:05:28.070715Z
End: 2026-02-10T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

1,15–1,19ºC

<1,00ºC

1,10–1,14ºC

1,00–1,04ºC

1,05–1,09ºC

>1,19ºC

Temperaturanstieg

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for February 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for February 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2025 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

February 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This is a market group over the temperature increase recorded for January 2025.

January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2024.

December 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024.

November 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for March 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

March 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of a named bracket for April 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for April 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2025 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

April 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

October 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for December 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for December 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Temperaturanstieg im Dezember 2025 (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Central Park, New York City in January 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "NY-Central Park Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized all the days of January. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/1)


Wird der Medianwert von Wohnimmobilien in New York City bis zum 1. Februar zwischen 580.000 und 590.000 US-Dollar liegen?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/3)


Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

<1,00ºC
$31,709 Umsatz
1%

1,00–1,04ºC
$87,592 Umsatz
4%

1,05–1,09ºC
$59,526 Umsatz
46%

1,10–1,14ºC
$41,755 Umsatz
37%

1,15–1,19ºC
$53,774 Umsatz
11%

>1,19ºC
$127,017 Umsatz
2%

Marktkontext

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

Regeln

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

Marktkontext

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

Über

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

<1,00ºC$31,709 Umsatz1%Kaufen Ja1.6¢Kaufen Nein98.8¢

1,00–1,04ºC$87,592 Umsatz4%Kaufen Ja4.6¢Kaufen Nein96.1¢

1,05–1,09ºC$59,526 Umsatz46%Kaufen Ja48¢Kaufen Nein56¢

1,10–1,14ºC$41,755 Umsatz37%Kaufen Ja39¢Kaufen Nein65¢

1,15–1,19ºC$53,774 Umsatz11%Kaufen Ja11¢Kaufen Nein90¢

>1,19ºC$127,017 Umsatz2%Kaufen Ja2.4¢Kaufen Nein98.0¢

Marktkontext

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

Regeln

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

Marktkontext

Januar 2026 Temperaturanstieg (ºC)

Über

<1,00ºC
$31,709 Umsatz
1%

1,00–1,04ºC
$87,592 Umsatz
4%

1,05–1,09ºC
$59,526 Umsatz
46%

1,10–1,14ºC
$41,755 Umsatz
37%

1,15–1,19ºC
$53,774 Umsatz
11%

>1,19ºC
$127,017 Umsatz
2%