India-Pakistan tensions persist after Operation Sindoor in May 2025, when India launched missile strikes on terror camps following the deadly Pahalgam attack, leading to a brief escalation and U.S.-mediated ceasefire. No verifiable cross-border military actions, airstrikes, or major terrorist incidents have occurred in the past 30 days, anchoring trader consensus on low near-term strike probabilities amid Pakistan's distractions from its Afghanistan conflict, including airstrikes India condemned on March 14. Pakistani President Zardari's March 3 claim of India gearing for war reflects rhetorical posturing, but lacks confirmed triggers. Watch for potential terror attacks or LoC clashes that could prompt retaliation, with odds favoring year-end outcomes over imminent escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIndien Streik gegen Pakistan von...?
Indien Streik gegen Pakistan von...?
$919,138 Vol.
31. März 2026
<1%
31. Dezember 2026
31%
$919,138 Vol.
31. März 2026
<1%
31. Dezember 2026
31%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...India-Pakistan tensions persist after Operation Sindoor in May 2025, when India launched missile strikes on terror camps following the deadly Pahalgam attack, leading to a brief escalation and U.S.-mediated ceasefire. No verifiable cross-border military actions, airstrikes, or major terrorist incidents have occurred in the past 30 days, anchoring trader consensus on low near-term strike probabilities amid Pakistan's distractions from its Afghanistan conflict, including airstrikes India condemned on March 14. Pakistani President Zardari's March 3 claim of India gearing for war reflects rhetorical posturing, but lacks confirmed triggers. Watch for potential terror attacks or LoC clashes that could prompt retaliation, with odds favoring year-end outcomes over imminent escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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