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Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?

Market icon

Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?

10-13 100.0%

≤5 <1%

6-9 <1%

14-17 <1%

Polymarket

$618,615 Vol.

10-13 100.0%

≤5 <1%

6-9 <1%

14-17 <1%

Polymarket

$618,615 Vol.

≤5

$222,174 Vol.

Nein

6-9

$219,827 Vol.

Nein

10-13

$0 Vol.

Ja

14-17

$0 Vol.

Nein

18-21

$0 Vol.

Nein

22+

$176,614 Vol.

Nein

This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between February 1 and February 28, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.

The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from January 31-February 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after March 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.

This market will remain open until March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.
Volumen
$618,615
Enddatum
Mar 4, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between February 1 and February 28, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes. The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from January 31-February 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after March 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike. This market will remain open until March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10-13" at 100%, followed by "≤5" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?" has generated $618.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?" is "10-13" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤5" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wie oft werden die USA im Februar Somalia angreifen?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.