Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23, reflecting maritime tracking data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Kpler showing daily counts of just 3-5 vessels amid 95% traffic suppression since the Iran war erupted on February 28. Iranian IRGC forces imposed selective transit controls on March 13, requiring fees up to $2 million and limiting passage to vessels from allied nations like China and Russia while barring Western-affiliated ships, exacerbated by sky-high war risk insurance and ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. US military efforts to reopen the chokepoint began March 19, but no rebound materialized, with recent days (March 23-25) logging only 4-5 transits each; stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks as of March 25 sustain the bottleneck, far below historical daily averages exceeding 60 ships.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
15-19 56.8%
20-24 38.5%
25-29 3.6%
10-14 1.4%
$408,027 Vol.
$408,027 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
<1%
10-14
1%
15-19
57%
20-24
39%
25-29
4%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45+
1%
15-19 56.8%
20-24 38.5%
25-29 3.6%
10-14 1.4%
$408,027 Vol.
$408,027 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
$52,828 Vol.
<1%
10-14
$37,045 Vol.
1%
15-19
$49,836 Vol.
57%
20-24
$37,972 Vol.
39%
25-29
$25,317 Vol.
4%
30-34
$22,992 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$33,857 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$48,917 Vol.
<1%
45+
$99,263 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23, reflecting maritime tracking data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Kpler showing daily counts of just 3-5 vessels amid 95% traffic suppression since the Iran war erupted on February 28. Iranian IRGC forces imposed selective transit controls on March 13, requiring fees up to $2 million and limiting passage to vessels from allied nations like China and Russia while barring Western-affiliated ships, exacerbated by sky-high war risk insurance and ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. US military efforts to reopen the chokepoint began March 19, but no rebound materialized, with recent days (March 23-25) logging only 4-5 transits each; stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks as of March 25 sustain the bottleneck, far below historical daily averages exceeding 60 ships.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$408,027Enddatum
Mar 23, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23, reflecting maritime tracking data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Kpler showing daily counts of just 3-5 vessels amid 95% traffic suppression since the Iran war erupted on February 28. Iranian IRGC forces imposed selective transit controls on March 13, requiring fees up to $2 million and limiting passage to vessels from allied nations like China and Russia while barring Western-affiliated ships, exacerbated by sky-high war risk insurance and ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. US military efforts to reopen the chokepoint began March 19, but no rebound materialized, with recent days (March 23-25) logging only 4-5 transits each; stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks as of March 25 sustain the bottleneck, far below historical daily averages exceeding 60 ships.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$408,027Enddatum
Mar 23, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23, reflecting maritime tracking data from sources like IMF PortWatch and Kpler showing daily counts of just 3-5 vessels amid 95% traffic suppression since the Iran war erupted on February 28. Iranian IRGC forces imposed selective transit controls on March 13, requiring fees up to $2 million and limiting passage to vessels from allied nations like China and Russia while barring Western-affiliated ships, exacerbated by sky-high war risk insurance and ongoing US-Israel airstrikes. US military efforts to reopen the chokepoint began March 19, but no rebound materialized, with recent days (March 23-25) logging only 4-5 transits each; stalled Pakistan-mediated peace talks as of March 25 sustain the bottleneck, far below historical daily averages exceeding 60 ships.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen