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Geopolitik·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Market icon
Geopolitik·Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Ended: März 23

Apr. 5

Ended: März 23

Apr. 5

15-19 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-14 <1%

20-24 <1%

Polymarket

$546,520 Vol.

15-19 100.0%

<10 <1%

10-14 <1%

20-24 <1%

Polymarket

$546,520 Vol.

<10

$56,331 Vol.

No

10-14

$47,748 Vol.

No

15-19

$101,417 Vol.

Yes

20-24

$78,767 Vol.

No

25-29

$36,105 Vol.

No

30-34

$31,197 Vol.

No

35-39

$39,814 Vol.

No

40-44

$50,485 Vol.

No

45+

$104,657 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 100% implied probability, driven by IMF Portwatch data—the market's official resolution source—confirming this tally amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since early March hostilities escalated with Iranian forces imposing selective controls, attacks on vessels, and insurance disruptions, daily transits plummeted from a pre-conflict average of 138 to low single digits, dominated by shadow fleet tankers with AIS often disabled. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted 29 large cargo vessel transits that week, but Portwatch's narrower criteria solidified the 15-19 count. With data published and no revisions reported, shifts would require evidence of untracked dark fleet passages or counting disputes.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$546,520
Enddatum
23. März 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 100% implied probability, driven by IMF Portwatch data—the market's official resolution source—confirming this tally amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since early March hostilities escalated with Iranian forces imposing selective controls, attacks on vessels, and insurance disruptions, daily transits plummeted from a pre-conflict average of 138 to low single digits, dominated by shadow fleet tankers with AIS often disabled. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted 29 large cargo vessel transits that week, but Portwatch's narrower criteria solidified the 15-19 count. With data published and no revisions reported, shifts would require evidence of untracked dark fleet passages or counting disputes.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$546,520
Enddatum
23. März 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „15-19" mit 100%, gefolgt von „<10" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $546.5K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 17, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" ist „15-19" mit 100%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „<10" mit 0%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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