The Hong Kong Observatory's official measurement of a maximum air temperature of 28.7°C at its station on April 15, 2026—recorded amid sunny intervals and a southerly airstream—solidifies trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 28°C outcome. This aligns with seasonal forecasts of normal to above-normal temperatures for April, following an exceptionally warm March and early spring highs around 28–29°C in many areas. Model consensus and historical April averages (around 27°C) supported such positioning pre-event, with odds shifting decisively after real-time observations confirmed the peak below 29°C. Realistic challenges are negligible post-verification, barring rare data revisions from instrument checks, as HKO readings are highly reliable standards.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 15. April?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 15. April?
28°C 100.0%
20°C oder weniger <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$375,526 Vol.
$375,526 Vol.
20°C oder weniger
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Nein
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Ja
29°C
Nein
30°C oder höher
Nein
28°C 100.0%
20°C oder weniger <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$375,526 Vol.
$375,526 Vol.
20°C oder weniger
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C
Nein
24°C
Nein
25°C
Nein
26°C
Nein
27°C
Nein
28°C
Ja
29°C
Nein
30°C oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The Hong Kong Observatory's official measurement of a maximum air temperature of 28.7°C at its station on April 15, 2026—recorded amid sunny intervals and a southerly airstream—solidifies trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 28°C outcome. This aligns with seasonal forecasts of normal to above-normal temperatures for April, following an exceptionally warm March and early spring highs around 28–29°C in many areas. Model consensus and historical April averages (around 27°C) supported such positioning pre-event, with odds shifting decisively after real-time observations confirmed the peak below 29°C. Realistic challenges are negligible post-verification, barring rare data revisions from instrument checks, as HKO readings are highly reliable standards.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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