Trader consensus prices USA as a slim Group D favorite at 39% implied probability to win the group, neck-and-neck with the UEFA Path C playoff winner (KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR) at 38.5%, reflecting the host nation's edge from home-soil matches across the United States, Canada, and Mexico amid a balanced draw. Turkey's gritty qualification via 1-0 semifinal victory over Romania on March 26 and 1-0 final win against Kosovo on March 31—showcasing defensive resilience under coach Vincenzo Montella—has fueled trader optimism for the 22nd-ranked Turks to challenge the 16th-ranked USMNT, whose automatic qualification masked uneven friendlies. Paraguay (16%) impressed in CONMEBOL qualifiers with robust defense, while Australia (8.1%) advances cautiously after middling AFC form, underscoring the open group dynamics where top-two finishers plus potential third-place advancement heighten stakes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUSA 39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 39%
Paraguay 16%
Australien 8.0%
$15,459 Vol.
$15,459 Vol.
USA
39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
39%
Paraguay
16%
Australien
8%
USA 39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR 39%
Paraguay 16%
Australien 8.0%
$15,459 Vol.
$15,459 Vol.
USA
39%
KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR
39%
Paraguay
16%
Australien
8%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices USA as a slim Group D favorite at 39% implied probability to win the group, neck-and-neck with the UEFA Path C playoff winner (KOS/ROU/SVK/TUR) at 38.5%, reflecting the host nation's edge from home-soil matches across the United States, Canada, and Mexico amid a balanced draw. Turkey's gritty qualification via 1-0 semifinal victory over Romania on March 26 and 1-0 final win against Kosovo on March 31—showcasing defensive resilience under coach Vincenzo Montella—has fueled trader optimism for the 22nd-ranked Turks to challenge the 16th-ranked USMNT, whose automatic qualification masked uneven friendlies. Paraguay (16%) impressed in CONMEBOL qualifiers with robust defense, while Australia (8.1%) advances cautiously after middling AFC form, underscoring the open group dynamics where top-two finishers plus potential third-place advancement heighten stakes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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