Finland's "Liekinheitin" by violinist Linda Lampenius and pop star Pete Parkkonen has surged to a 36.1% implied probability as the clear frontrunner following their dominant UMK 2026 victory on February 28, where the entry nearly tripled the runner-up's score amid record viewership and strong jury-televote balance, evoking past Nordic winners like "Cha Cha Cha." France (13.8%) and Denmark (10.3%) trail closely, buoyed by their respective internal selection and DMGP win with Søren Torpegaard Lund's "Før vi går hjem" on February 14, plus recent OGAE fan votes favoring Finland. Pre-parties like today's Eurovision in Concert, confirming 27 acts, amplify buzz, but odds remain fluid ahead of Vienna semifinals in May amid ongoing national finals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEurovision-Gewinner 2026
Eurovision-Gewinner 2026
Finnland 36.0%
Frankreich 13.7%
Dänemark 10.3%
Australien 6.6%
$53,463,785 Vol.
$53,463,785 Vol.

Finnland
36%

Frankreich
14%

Dänemark
10%

Australien
7%

Griechenland
6%

Israel
4%

Schweden
4%

Ukraine
3%

Italien
2%

Rumänien
2%

Tschechien
1%

Zypern
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgarien
1%

Kroatien
1%

Deutschland
1%

Luxemburg
1%

Belgien
1%

Moldawien
1%

Norwegen
1%

Schweiz
1%

Vereinigtes Königreich
1%

Polen
1%

Albanien
<1%

Österreich
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Lettland
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Armenien
<1%

Aserbaidschan
<1%

Georgien
<1%

Litauen
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Serbien
<1%

Portugal
<1%
Finnland 36.0%
Frankreich 13.7%
Dänemark 10.3%
Australien 6.6%
$53,463,785 Vol.
$53,463,785 Vol.

Finnland
36%

Frankreich
14%

Dänemark
10%

Australien
7%

Griechenland
6%

Israel
4%

Schweden
4%

Ukraine
3%

Italien
2%

Rumänien
2%

Tschechien
1%

Zypern
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgarien
1%

Kroatien
1%

Deutschland
1%

Luxemburg
1%

Belgien
1%

Moldawien
1%

Norwegen
1%

Schweiz
1%

Vereinigtes Königreich
1%

Polen
1%

Albanien
<1%

Österreich
<1%

Estonia
<1%

Lettland
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Armenien
<1%

Aserbaidschan
<1%

Georgien
<1%

Litauen
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Serbien
<1%

Portugal
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by violinist Linda Lampenius and pop star Pete Parkkonen has surged to a 36.1% implied probability as the clear frontrunner following their dominant UMK 2026 victory on February 28, where the entry nearly tripled the runner-up's score amid record viewership and strong jury-televote balance, evoking past Nordic winners like "Cha Cha Cha." France (13.8%) and Denmark (10.3%) trail closely, buoyed by their respective internal selection and DMGP win with Søren Torpegaard Lund's "Før vi går hjem" on February 14, plus recent OGAE fan votes favoring Finland. Pre-parties like today's Eurovision in Concert, confirming 27 acts, amplify buzz, but odds remain fluid ahead of Vienna semifinals in May amid ongoing national finals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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