Name: Electoral College Margin of Victory?
Start: 2024-01-10T01:39:00Z
End: 2024-11-04T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by 215 or more electoral college votes compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 215+

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 155 and 214 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 155-214

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 65 and 104 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.



GOP by 65-104

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 5 and 14 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 5-14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 15 and 34 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 15-34

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 35 and 64 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 35-64

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 0 and 4 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 0-4

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 15 and 34 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 15-34

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 5 and 14 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 5-14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 35 and 64 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 35-64

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 65 and 104 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 65-104

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 105 and 154 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 105-154

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by 215 or more electoral college votes compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 215+

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 105 and 154 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 105-154

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 155 and 214 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


Dems by 155-214

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 1 and 4 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.


GOP by 1-4

This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither a democrat-nominated nor a republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If there is a tie in electoral votes between a democrat-nominated and republican-nominated candidate (and all third party candidates trail both), this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

GOP/Dems both lose

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the federal funds rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “Other” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (<2 or ≥2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

GOP by 215+
$7,262,056 Umsatz
No

GOP by 155-214
$5,230,771 Umsatz
No

GOP by 105-154
$6,473,741 Umsatz
No

GOP by 65-104
$7,563,203 Umsatz
Yes

GOP by 35-64
$6,753,406 Umsatz
No

GOP by 15-34
$5,040,360 Umsatz
No

GOP by 5-14
$5,436,305 Umsatz
No

GOP by 1-4
$5,813,310 Umsatz
No

Dems by 0-4
$5,777,920 Umsatz
No

Dems by 5-14
$6,235,007 Umsatz
No

Dems by 15-34
$5,813,697 Umsatz
No

Dems by 35-64
$4,503,322 Umsatz
No

Dems by 65-104
$5,777,360 Umsatz
No

Dems by 105-154
$6,153,981 Umsatz
No

Dems by 155-214
$5,393,719 Umsatz
No

Dems by 215+
$6,016,787 Umsatz
No

GOP/Dems both lose
$20,963,826 Umsatz
No

Marktkontext

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

Regeln

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

Marktkontext

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

Über

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

GOP by 215+$7,262,056 UmsatzNo

GOP by 155-214$5,230,771 UmsatzNo

GOP by 105-154$6,473,741 UmsatzNo

GOP by 65-104$7,563,203 UmsatzYes

GOP by 35-64$6,753,406 UmsatzNo

GOP by 15-34$5,040,360 UmsatzNo

GOP by 5-14$5,436,305 UmsatzNo

GOP by 1-4$5,813,310 UmsatzNo

Dems by 0-4$5,777,920 UmsatzNo

Dems by 5-14$6,235,007 UmsatzNo

Dems by 15-34$5,813,697 UmsatzNo

Dems by 35-64$4,503,322 UmsatzNo

Dems by 65-104$5,777,360 UmsatzNo

Dems by 105-154$6,153,981 UmsatzNo

Dems by 155-214$5,393,719 UmsatzNo

Dems by 215+$6,016,787 UmsatzNo

GOP/Dems both lose$20,963,826 UmsatzNo

Marktkontext

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

Regeln

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

Marktkontext

Electoral College Margin of Victory?

Über

GOP by 215+
$7,262,056 Umsatz
No

GOP by 155-214
$5,230,771 Umsatz
No

GOP by 105-154
$6,473,741 Umsatz
No

GOP by 65-104
$7,563,203 Umsatz
Yes

GOP by 35-64
$6,753,406 Umsatz
No

GOP by 15-34
$5,040,360 Umsatz
No

GOP by 5-14
$5,436,305 Umsatz
No

GOP by 1-4
$5,813,310 Umsatz
No

Dems by 0-4
$5,777,920 Umsatz
No

Dems by 5-14
$6,235,007 Umsatz
No

Dems by 15-34
$5,813,697 Umsatz
No

Dems by 35-64
$4,503,322 Umsatz
No

Dems by 65-104
$5,777,360 Umsatz
No

Dems by 105-154
$6,153,981 Umsatz
No

Dems by 155-214
$5,393,719 Umsatz
No

Dems by 215+
$6,016,787 Umsatz
No

GOP/Dems both lose
$20,963,826 Umsatz
No