Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven primarily by the original headset's dismal sales performance, with IDC estimating just 45,000 units shipped in Q4 2025 amid a 95% marketing budget cut and halted production reported in January 2026. Apple opted for a minor M5 chip refresh in October 2025 rather than a full successor, signaling a strategic pivot toward lighter "Vision Air" models or AI smart glasses targeted for 2027 amid weak demand for high-end spatial computing hardware. While historical Apple product cycles allow for surprises, realistic challenges to this view include unforeseen supply chain accelerations or WWDC announcements, though persistent low adoption and resource shifts to iPhone AI features make an early launch improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven primarily by the original headset's dismal sales performance, with IDC estimating just 45,000 units shipped in Q4 2025 amid a 95% marketing budget cut and halted production reported in January 2026. Apple opted for a minor M5 chip refresh in October 2025 rather than a full successor, signaling a strategic pivot toward lighter "Vision Air" models or AI smart glasses targeted for 2027 amid weak demand for high-end spatial computing hardware. While historical Apple product cycles allow for surprises, realistic challenges to this view include unforeseen supply chain accelerations or WWDC announcements, though persistent low adoption and resource shifts to iPhone AI features make an early launch improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volumen
$2,275Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven primarily by the original headset's dismal sales performance, with IDC estimating just 45,000 units shipped in Q4 2025 amid a 95% marketing budget cut and halted production reported in January 2026. Apple opted for a minor M5 chip refresh in October 2025 rather than a full successor, signaling a strategic pivot toward lighter "Vision Air" models or AI smart glasses targeted for 2027 amid weak demand for high-end spatial computing hardware. While historical Apple product cycles allow for surprises, realistic challenges to this view include unforeseen supply chain accelerations or WWDC announcements, though persistent low adoption and resource shifts to iPhone AI features make an early launch improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,275Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93.5% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven primarily by the original headset's dismal sales performance, with IDC estimating just 45,000 units shipped in Q4 2025 amid a 95% marketing budget cut and halted production reported in January 2026. Apple opted for a minor M5 chip refresh in October 2025 rather than a full successor, signaling a strategic pivot toward lighter "Vision Air" models or AI smart glasses targeted for 2027 amid weak demand for high-end spatial computing hardware. While historical Apple product cycles allow for surprises, realistic challenges to this view include unforeseen supply chain accelerations or WWDC announcements, though persistent low adoption and resource shifts to iPhone AI features make an early launch improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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