Spain leads trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by topping UEFA qualifying Group E, reigning as Euro 2024 champions with unmatched midfield depth from Rodri, Pedri, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal, whose return bolstered the March 2026 friendly squad announcement. Yet the race stays tight among elite contenders—England at 12.6% leverages consistent qualifying form and depth, France at 12.3% sharpened by Kylian Mbappé's goal in a recent 2-1 friendly win over Brazil, while defending champions Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.8%) maintain realistic paths via CONMEBOL talent despite uneven qualifiers. The expanded 48-team format amplifies upset potential, keeping probabilities bunched amid uncertain fitness heading into June kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 16.3%
England 12.6%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 12.3%
Argentinien 9.4%
$449,551,477 Vol.
$449,551,477 Vol.

Spanien
16%

England
13%

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
12%

Argentinien
9%

Brasilien
9%

Portugal
7%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
3%

Belgien
2%

Kolumbien
2%

Japan
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Schweiz
1%

Uruguay
1%

Kroatien
1%

Mexiko
1%

Ecuador
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Schweden
1%

Kanada
1%

Österreich
1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Australien
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Iran
<1%

Panama
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%

Katar
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%
Spanien 16.3%
England 12.6%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 12.3%
Argentinien 9.4%
$449,551,477 Vol.
$449,551,477 Vol.

Spanien
16%

England
13%

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
12%

Argentinien
9%

Brasilien
9%

Portugal
7%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
3%

Belgien
2%

Kolumbien
2%

Japan
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Schweiz
1%

Uruguay
1%

Kroatien
1%

Mexiko
1%

Ecuador
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Schweden
1%

Kanada
1%

Österreich
1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Australien
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Iran
<1%

Panama
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%

Katar
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by topping UEFA qualifying Group E, reigning as Euro 2024 champions with unmatched midfield depth from Rodri, Pedri, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal, whose return bolstered the March 2026 friendly squad announcement. Yet the race stays tight among elite contenders—England at 12.6% leverages consistent qualifying form and depth, France at 12.3% sharpened by Kylian Mbappé's goal in a recent 2-1 friendly win over Brazil, while defending champions Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.8%) maintain realistic paths via CONMEBOL talent despite uneven qualifiers. The expanded 48-team format amplifies upset potential, keeping probabilities bunched amid uncertain fitness heading into June kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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