Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, retaining the FIFA #1 ranking after dominant March internationals, including a 3-0 friendly rout of Serbia and an 80% win rate over their last five matches with 15 goals scored. The race remains tightly contested among Europe and South America's elite—England (12.8%), France (11.1%), defending champions Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%)—as qualifiers concluded with playoffs on March 26-31, confirming a deep 48-team field of powerhouses boasting star attackers like Mbappé, Haaland, and Vinícius Júnior. No squad shows overwhelming dominance amid recent form fluctuations, key player fitness concerns, and the tournament's expanded format favoring upsets in group stage and knockouts across North American venues.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.1%
Argentinien 9.8%
$426,397,306 Vol.
$426,397,306 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Australien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Spanien 15.8%
England 12.8%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.1%
Argentinien 9.8%
$426,397,306 Vol.
$426,397,306 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
2%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexiko
1%
Kroatien
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Australien
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, retaining the FIFA #1 ranking after dominant March internationals, including a 3-0 friendly rout of Serbia and an 80% win rate over their last five matches with 15 goals scored. The race remains tightly contested among Europe and South America's elite—England (12.8%), France (11.1%), defending champions Argentina (9.8%), and Brazil (8.6%)—as qualifiers concluded with playoffs on March 26-31, confirming a deep 48-team field of powerhouses boasting star attackers like Mbappé, Haaland, and Vinícius Júnior. No squad shows overwhelming dominance amid recent form fluctuations, key player fitness concerns, and the tournament's expanded format favoring upsets in group stage and knockouts across North American venues.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen