Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.9% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA qualifiers, and emergence of stars like Lamine Yamal, maintaining momentum into the tournament hosted across North America. England (12.7%) and France (11.8%) trail closely, bolstered by dominant March qualifier wins—such as England's 5-0 rout of Latvia—and deep squads blending experience with youth. Defending champions Argentina (9.7%) and Brazil (8.6%) stay competitive amid CONMEBOL successes, but inconsistencies temper their leads. This tight clustering underscores a parity-rich field of 48 teams post-recent playoffs and group draw, where group stage volatility and knockout matchups heighten upset risks for all favorites.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.9%
England 12.7%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.9%
Argentinien 9.7%
$438,612,729 Vol.
$438,612,729 Vol.

Spanien
16%

England
13%

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
12%

Argentinien
10%

Brasilien
9%

Portugal
7%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
3%

Italien
3%

Belgien
2%

Kolumbien
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Japan
1%

Uruguay
1%

Mexiko
1%

Kroatien
1%

Schweiz
1%

Ecuador
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Kanada
1%

Österreich
1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Australien
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Iran
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%

Katar
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%
Spanien 15.9%
England 12.7%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.9%
Argentinien 9.7%
$438,612,729 Vol.
$438,612,729 Vol.

Spanien
16%

England
13%

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
12%

Argentinien
10%

Brasilien
9%

Portugal
7%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
3%

Italien
3%

Belgien
2%

Kolumbien
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Japan
1%

Uruguay
1%

Mexiko
1%

Kroatien
1%

Schweiz
1%

Ecuador
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Kanada
1%

Österreich
1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Australien
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Iran
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%

Katar
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.9% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, flawless UEFA qualifiers, and emergence of stars like Lamine Yamal, maintaining momentum into the tournament hosted across North America. England (12.7%) and France (11.8%) trail closely, bolstered by dominant March qualifier wins—such as England's 5-0 rout of Latvia—and deep squads blending experience with youth. Defending champions Argentina (9.7%) and Brazil (8.6%) stay competitive amid CONMEBOL successes, but inconsistencies temper their leads. This tight clustering underscores a parity-rich field of 48 teams post-recent playoffs and group draw, where group stage volatility and knockout matchups heighten upset risks for all favorites.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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