Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by an unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign and dominant Champions League performances from Spanish clubs showcasing stars like Yamal and Pedri. France surged to 11.9% after a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil last week in Massachusetts, reaffirming their knockout pedigree despite past near-misses. England (12.7%) and Argentina (9.7%) remain close contenders amid steady qualifier dominance, while Brazil (8.6%) slipped post-loss. The top cluster stays tight due to the expanded 48-team format enabling upsets, group draw protections delaying elite clashes until semifinals or later, and lingering uncertainties around aging cores like Messi's, player fitness through club seasons, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico ahead of the June kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 16.0%
England 12.7%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.9%
Argentinien 9.7%
$440,074,432 Vol.
$440,074,432 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
12%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
3%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Kroatien
1%
Mexiko
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
Spanien 16.0%
England 12.7%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 11.9%
Argentinien 9.7%
$440,074,432 Vol.
$440,074,432 Vol.
Spanien
16%
England
13%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
12%
Argentinien
10%
Brasilien
9%
Portugal
7%
Deutschland
5%
Niederlande
3%
Norwegen
3%
Italien
3%
Belgien
2%
Kolumbien
2%
USA
2%
Marokko
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Kroatien
1%
Mexiko
1%
Schweiz
1%
Ecuador
1%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%
Kanada
1%
Österreich
1%
Südkorea
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%
Elfenbeinküste
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algerien
<1%
Schottland
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%
Australien
<1%
Saudi-Arabien
<1%
Ägypten
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordanien
<1%
Iran
<1%
Südafrika
<1%
Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Katar
<1%
Neuseeland
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Usbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by an unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign and dominant Champions League performances from Spanish clubs showcasing stars like Yamal and Pedri. France surged to 11.9% after a 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil last week in Massachusetts, reaffirming their knockout pedigree despite past near-misses. England (12.7%) and Argentina (9.7%) remain close contenders amid steady qualifier dominance, while Brazil (8.6%) slipped post-loss. The top cluster stays tight due to the expanded 48-team format enabling upsets, group draw protections delaying elite clashes until semifinals or later, and lingering uncertainties around aging cores like Messi's, player fitness through club seasons, and host advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico ahead of the June kickoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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