Recent purges ratified at the CCP’s Fifth Plenum in late October 2026 have removed dozens of senior military and civilian officials, including multiple Central Military Commission members, reinforcing Xi Jinping’s centralized authority ahead of the 21st Party Congress scheduled for the second half of 2027. Analysts across sources view this gathering as preparatory for his expected fourth term, with no retirement norms or designated successor constraining his position and state media emphasizing unity around his leadership. Trader consensus at 98.3% for “No” reflects this institutional consolidation and absence of credible challenges within the resolution window. Health developments, an unforeseen internal reversal, or abrupt policy reversals remain the primary low-probability variables that could still shift outcomes before 2027.